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Clinton, Giuliani wobble
02/12/2007 14:01 - (SA)
Washington - Front-runners are faltering and a tsunami of negative attacks is building, just a month before first votes are cast in the too-close-to-call Democratic and Republican White House races.
After months of shadow boxing in the longest and most open campaign in decades, the moment is looming when candidates must either take out their rivals, or face a knockout themselves.
Gone are the days when media profiles painted Hillary Clinton as the "inevitable" Democratic nominee.
Spurred by softening poll numbers, Clinton has launched a full-bore assault on top rival Barack Obama, questioning his honesty and experience.
An unravelling of Clinton's support may deepen as more voters tune in, said Tom Baldino, professor of political science at Wilkes University, Pennsylvania.
"I suspect her support may be a mile wide, and an inch deep," he said.
Clinton's harsh new tone may hint at concern of mounting trouble in Iowa, where victory in the fabled leadoff nominating caucuses on January 3, would likely send her rocketing to the nomination.
Polls
Three recent Iowa polls showed Obama leading Clinton and rival John Edwards, though the race is still a statistical tie. Polls also show Clinton's wide lead narrowing somewhat in New Hampshire which holds primaries on January 8.
Though Bill Clinton won in 1992 without winning either state, analysts said a double defeat may be too much for his wife.
"It would really begin to upset this notion of inevitability which is one of her greatest assets," said University of Arkansas political science professor Andrew Dowdle.
Worrying for Clinton, an American Research Group poll in Iowa showed her down 10 percentage points in a month among women - the demographic underpinning of her campaign.
And things could get worse next week when Obama hits the trail with billionaire chat show megastar Oprah Winfrey.
Clinton's celebrity draw - her husband - has also stumbled - reflecting the double-edged sword of help from a man wildly popular with Democrats but with his own distinctive political persona.
The ex-commander in chief claimed he had been against the Iraq war all along, belying a more nuanced stance as the drums of war pounded in 2003.
If Hillary Clinton is stalling, Obama may be rising.
With trademark soaring rhetoric, the Illinois senator is warming to his argument that Clinton is a symptom and not a cure of a US political malaise.
But Clinton still holds some trump cards, with support from committed older voters and a large lead in nationwide polls.
"I think she has the ability to weather some storms that other candidates might not," said Dowdle.
The Clintons' supernatural survival instincts may also come into play: significantly, the former first lady's poise when several staffers were embroiled in a hostage siege on Friday was lauded in the press as "presidential."
Republicans
Unusually for a Republican race, the 2008 battle lacks a clear front-runner.
"It is as wide open as it has been in decades," said Dowdle.
Rudolph Giuliani, who heads national polls, is battling scandal, after denying reports he obscured thousands of dollars in taxpayer costs for his security detail while having an extramarital affair as New York major.
The episode bolstered conventional wisdom that shadows in Giuliani's past may eventually scupper his presidential bid.
"I think he is in some real trouble," said Baldino, adding the pressure could reveal a less flattering side of Giuliani's character.
"He has been smiling all along through clenched teeth, he may be harmed by the sharp edge that is going to emerge."
Giuliani's rivals are also feeling the heat.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, banking on wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, is in the sights of sunny ex-Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who softens staunch conservatism with Reagan-esque wisecracks.
Huckabee has overtaken Romney in one Iowa poll, and is hoping to emulate former Democratic president Jimmy Carter by appearing from nowhere in the state and vaulting to national prominence.
Longshots John McCain and Fred Thompson are also piling on, and the fight is especially nasty on illegal immigration, a poisonous faultline in US politics which looks set to fester right through to the November 2008 election.
- AFP
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