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Murky future ahead for Russia
03/12/2007 14:22 - (SA)
Christopher Boian
Moscow - Long foretold as a certainty, the mass electoral benediction bestowed on President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party paradoxically opens the door to an uncertain future for Russia, analysts said.
There has been little question for years about who controls the
world's largest nation and Sunday's elections for the State Duma, the
lower house of Russia's parliament, only loudly repeated what everyone
already knew.
But if the vote shouted the answer to one question it simultaneously
raised with growing urgency a host of others about how this nuclear
superpower will be governed 16 years after the collapse of the Soviet
Union.
"It is difficult enough even to analyse what has happened, let alone
forecast what could happen next," said Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy
director of the USA Canada Institute, a respected Russian political
think tank.
What next?
"We all know that United Russia is the big winner. But so what? What
does this solve? So they win and Putin remains the national leader. So
what does this do? They don't seem to have a clear idea of where to
go," he said.
It is this question - what on earth does Putin and the party constructed around him intend to do with its uncontested lock on all authority in Russia? - that Sunday's election results only begin to ask in a concrete way.
"Putin says it is a kind of vote of confidence in him," said Yevgeny
Volk, a well-known political analyst with the conservative
Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank.
"Naturally he would like to use this victory, that is convincing, as a kind of endorsement for his political future - whatever it is."
It is that "whatever it is" that disturbs a handful of Russian
campaigners and Western governments, as many ordinary Russians hope
simply for the improvement in living standards they have seen under
Putin to continue.
Who will succeed Putin?
One thing Putin has made clear is that he does not plan to leave
politics any time soon.
Analysts and politicians say the ex-KGB agent could make
constitutional changes to move power from the presidency to a new post.
Or Putin could hand over the reins of power to a trusted ally
temporarily to circumvent the constitutional ban on a third consecutive
term, or just retain power from behind the scenes.
But with the Duma election now out of the way and just three months
to go before the March 2 presidential election, there is still no
declared candidate seen as having the remotest chance of succeeding
him.
Those contenders will burst onto the stage in the next three weeks - December 23 is the deadline for registration of presidential
candidates.
United Russia said on Monday it will hold a congress on December 17
to nominate its candidate for the presidential election.
"The winning party has the full right to designate its candidate for
the presidency and believes that the majority of the population will
support him," Saint Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko was quoted
by Interfax as saying.
Leading the list of possible successors are Prime Minister Viktor
Zubkov, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev,
also a first deputy prime minister.
"This situation contains much that cannot be anticipated," said
Kremenyuk.
In the absence of any public certainty about the impending changes
at the apex of the Russian state, observers at all levels were left
with little option other than to speculate on possible scenarios.
"One thing I fear is that the situation could get out of control,"
Kremenyuk said, with a part of Russia's ruling elite backing a plan for
Putin to remain at the helm beyond completion of his second term and
another opposing this.
'Coup' fears
Yulia Latynina, a well-known columnist, said there was a risk of a
"coup" by one of these two factions within the Kremlin.
"Putin has put himself in a difficult situation by making himself
indispensable, by destroying any possibility of a normal succession,"
she said.
Kremenyuk predicted that the uncertainty over the political future
of the 55-year-old former KGB officer, would continue in the months
ahead despite the announced landslide victory for United Russia.
Putin, echoed by his supporters, spoke in the months and weeks ahead
of the Duma vote of various possibilities that would allow him to keep
the "influence" he says he wants after leaving office.
But no sooner does the Kremlin mention a scenario - Putin himself
said in October that it would be "entirely realistic" for him to take
the post of prime minister - than it publicly downplays it, keeping
all guessing.
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