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Nato risks losing the war
19/12/2007 14:21 - (SA)
Kabul - The Afghan president says his
country is improving - schools and hospitals are being built
and the economy is stronger, but problems remain with
insurgents.
"The construction of new schools and hospitals ... are the
characteristics of our social policy," he says. "Our brave
armed forces have significantly developed ... carry out combat
operations, smash extremist bands."
But the time is not 2007, it is 1987, and the president
is Soviet-backed Najibullah, not the Western-backed Hamid
Karzai. Yet 20 years later, Karzai is delivering a similar
message.
Just two years after Najibullah made that speech his Soviet
backers, worn down by constant casualties, withdrew their
troops and abandoned the Afghan government to its fate.
Now diplomats and the military fear unless something is
done to revitalise strategy against the Taliban, Western
governments will also lose their will and pull out their
troops. Without Western backing, Karzai's government may not
last very long.
"If we cannot show progress in the next year or two, or at
least show we are moving in the right direction, we will have
serious difficulty in keeping some of our partners engaged in
Afghanistan," said one senior Western diplomat.
Six years after the Taliban were ousted following the September
11 attacks, support for the war is waning and Canada, Germany
and the Netherlands could withdraw troops by 2010, leaving a
big hole that other Nato nations may be unwilling or unable to
fill.
Hobbled
The 38-nation Nato-led International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan is already hobbled by restrictions
that mean most European nations only allow their troops to fire
in self-defence and bar them from the more violent south.
US appeals for 3 500 more military trainers, more
helicopters and ground troops have largely fallen on deaf ears.
The shortage of troops means Nato, in the words of one
analyst, "is left chasing the pieces round the chess board".
Some now question the validity of an alliance that won the
Cold War, but is struggling against a rag-tag lightly armed
militia. Failure in Afghanistan might damage Nato beyond
repair.
Afghan and international troops have killed large numbers
of Taliban fighters during clashes, but the insurgents are
showing no signs of suffering from a shortage of recruits.
The almost inevitable civilian casualties resulting from
reliance on air-strikes has led to a growing alienation of the
population, especially in the south, analysts report.
Tactical victories, then, are not being translated into the
strategic defeat of the insurgents.
"We are winning the battles and not the war, in my view. We
have been very successful in clearing areas of the Taliban, but
it's having no real strategic effect," said Australian Defence
Minister Joel Fitzgibbon after a meeting in Scotland of nations
with troops in Afghanistan.
Harsher environment
The harsher security environment has also curtailed the
ability of UN agencies and NGOs to deliver humanitarian
assistance, the United Nations said this week.
Waking up to the prospect of losing a campaign that was
declared won six years ago, the United States and Nato have
ordered a series of reviews of policy in Afghanistan.
Washington is also pushing for a civilian "super-envoy" to
lead and co-ordinate Nato and UN efforts in Afghanistan.
Former Bosnian envoy Paddy Ashdown is widely tipped for the
post.
"Wherever you look in Afghanistan, the signs are bad, but
there is a growing awareness of what the remedies are," said
another senior Western diplomat.
The question is whether those plans can work and the West
does not end up withdrawing troops as the Soviets did before.
While Najibullah's government held out for another three
years after the Soviet pullout, Afghanistan endured a civil war
that killed tens of thousands and made millions refugees.
"It is now like 1984-85, we have lost the countryside,
Afghans cannot work for us because it is too dangerous for
them, and in the next couple of years, allied countries will
start dropping out and then it will be the end," said Kees
Rietveld, a consultant working on Afghanistan for more than 20
years.
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