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Independents to play a role
28/01/2008 13:01 - (SA)
Washington - More than half the states holding presidential primary contests in February will allow unaffiliated voters to participate, giving millions of independents a chance to shape what is usually an insider affair among Democratic and Republican loyalists.
Two of those states - California and New Jersey - together have nearly six million unaffiliated voters who will be allowed to cast ballots. Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts and Alabama are among other prized catches with millions of independents eligible for the 20-odd state contests on February 5, which has been dubbed Super Tuesday.
The open voting is widely considered to benefit Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain, who have fared well among independents in recent polls and primaries. It also is reflected in Obama's words, from his outreach to Republican voters to his recent credit to Ronald Reagan in the context of elections that represent shifts in political direction.
Obama trying to balance
"Obama's trying to do two things at once. On the one hand, energise the liberal base, but also attract independents who are looking for a bipartisan problem-solver," said Jack Pitney, a former deputy research director for the Republican National Committee and a government professor at Claremont McKenna College in California. "That's a very difficult balance, and (Hillary) Clinton is trying to highlight the contradiction there."
Pitney and others said turnout will probably be high among independents because of the wide-open contests in each party. But it is tricky to predict the impact, they said.
In winning South Carolina's primary on Saturday, for example, Obama drew 42% of voters describing themselves as independents, compared with 26% for Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to exit polls.
But he had similar advantages among independents in New Hampshire and Nevada, and lost both states as Clinton won stronger support from core Democrats.
Obama, for example, had a 10-point advantage among independents over Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in New Hampshire and a 14-point advantage in Nevada, according to exit polls.
But Clinton won in both states after getting stronger support from core Democrats.
"It makes a difference at the margin," Pitney said. "I don't know of any cases where independents by themselves have decided a nomination, but in a very close contest, they might be able to tip it one way or another."
Flexible voting systems
Fifteen of the states holding contests on Super Tuesday have some form of flexible voting system. Some are wide open, allowing voters to cast ballots in either party regardless of political affiliation. Others have semi-open primaries, allowing unaffiliated voters to participate if they register with a party on the day of the primary.
Obama could get the biggest boost, analysts said, because independents appear to be leaning toward Democrats this year.
Six in 10 opted to participate in the Democratic contest in New Hampshire's open primary. In exit polls, they have expressed dissatisfaction with President George W Bush and the war in Iraq, as well as strong concerns about the economy.
McCain attracting independent voters
Among Republicans, McCain has continued to attract independent voters as he did against Bush in 2000, but they have not turned out as strongly.
In winning South Carolina's Republican primary on Jan. 19, McCain took 42% of the unaffiliated vote to Mike Huckabee's 25%. But those voters made up only 18% of the electorate, compared with 30% in 2000.
Another potential pitfall for McCain is that in California - which has more delegates than any other state - independents will not be allowed to participate in the Republican primary because party leaders decided to close their contest, while Democrats are keeping theirs open.
Speaking to reporters in Florida on Thursday, McCain said that while he appreciates his independent support, he can win only on the backs of fellow Republicans. Indeed, his 2000 loss to Bush proved the point.
"It's very good to get independents and it increases your lead and it shows that you are electable nationwide," he said. "But you still have to rely on the Republican base."
The ranks of unaffiliated voters have grown steadily since the 1960s. Experts estimate that about one in five eligible voters nationally are independents. But the figure is difficult to pin down because many states do not require voter registration by party, and many voters who call themselves independents lean strongly toward one party.
Among states with partisan registration, percentages vary widely.
California's three million unaffiliated voters account for about 19% of the state's total registered. In New Jersey, some 2.8 million are unaffiliated - well over half. Kansas and Massachusetts, two other Super Tuesday states with flexible primary rules, have 447 634 (27%) and two million (50%) unaffiliated voters, respectively.
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