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'Super Tuesday' scenarios
05/02/2008 08:23 - (SA)
Washington - Possible scenarios for the Democratic and Republican presidential races after "Super Tuesday", the 24 state string of White House nominating contests on February 5.
Democrats:
In a scenario considered unlikely by both campaigns, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama could gather up enough delegates and state victories on "Super Tuesday" to convince the other that victory is no longer possible.
The most likely outcome, according to sources in both campaigns, is that the two rivals come out of the 22 Democratic contests close enough to one another, that follow-on contests through to early March in states like Maryland, Virginia, Ohio and Texas are likely to decide the nomination.
Some analysts believe that should Clinton run the table on big, delegate-rich states like New York, California, New Jersey, Missouri and Massachusetts and Obama only show up well in small, southern states and his homebase of Illinois, super delegates - unelected senior party officials and luminaries who get to weigh in on party nominees - might begin to peel towards the former first lady, giving her a huge edge going into later contests.
In a third possibility, which experts still believe is unlikely, the two rivals match each other delegate by delegate and arrive at the party's nominating convention in Denver in August, for a bruising floor fight for the nomination.
In this event, Clinton would battle for representatives from Michigan and Florida to count, after she won contests in the two states which had delegates stripped over a scheduling row - setting up a fiercely divisive political battle.
Democratic party officials however say that with a Republican nominee likely to be confirmed soon, there will be enormous pressure for Democrats to settle on their presidential pick before the convention, and super delegates may again make the difference.
Republicans:
Senator John McCain virtually runs the table of delegate-rich states like California, New York and New Jersey and Tennessee, convincing rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee who split conservative votes, that there is no hope in going on, and he becomes the de-facto nominee.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney manages to gather disgruntled conservatives who dislike the maverick McCain, and wins enough big states and delegates to keep going.
A shock win over McCain in California for instance, along with victories in Illinois, Alaska and Missouri could convince Republicans further on in the election cycle that McCain is vulnerable, analysts said.
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