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Super Tuesday: No clear winner
06/02/2008 12:03 - (SA)
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| Patti Whiffen, supporter of Senator Barack Obama, during the pledge of allegiance at the Ada County Democratic caucus in Boise, Idaho. (The Idaho Statesman, Joe Jaszewski, AP) |
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Washington - Fractured Super Tuesday results suggest that the unprecedented coast-to-coast voting in 24 states may be only the end of the beginning of the longest, most expensive US presidential race in history.
Months ago, New York Senator Hillary Clinton had hoped the contest would crown her as the Democratic White House champion and set her on her way to becoming the first woman occupant of the Oval Office.
Lately, supporters of Illinois Senator Barack Obama had hoped he would ride a wave of "Yes We Can" enthusiasm, fed by a torrent of donations, past Clinton and onward to becoming the country's first black president.
Resurgent Republican Senator John McCain had counted on the epic political battle to wipe out his rivals and propel him to the White House, eight years after he lost his party's nod to George W Bush.
Former Masschusetts governor Mitt Romney, rallying the McCain-averse right wing like never before, had hoped to impose himself as the conservatives' champion and battle all the way to the November elections.
There's just one problem, explained Eric Davis, a political scientist at Middlebury College in Vermont: "The essence of tonight is: No clear winner."
Battered by their rivals, Clinton and McCain each scored a key victory by capturing the evening's major prize - California, a treasure trove of delegates to the Democratic and Republican presidential nominating conventions.
Waiting until April 22?
But it was clear that the 2008 White House race "will go well beyond tonight", Mike Feldman, a former top aide to then-vice president Al Gore, told AFP from a raucous-sounding Super Tuesday party.
"The Clinton assumption in December was that today was the day that they would wrap up the nomination. They thought that they would fight it out in early states, then sweep to victory on Super Tuesday," said Davis.
"That has not happened," he told AFP by telephone.
Barring a clean sweep by Obama or Clinton in next week's primaries, "there's a good chance that this isn't going to be resolved until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22."
On the Republican side, "the snapshot for tonight is McCain is still in the lead, but he had hoped he would close the deal tonight, and that hasn't happened", in part because of a groundswell of conservatives fiercely opposing his nomination, explained Davis.
"It may be that it will be resolved by March 4," when five states, including Texas and Ohio, hold primaries, he said.
It was hard to tell whether McCain was helped or hurt by the surprisingly strong showing of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister who carried several Southern conservative Republican bastions.
Backers of Romney, a multi-millionaire who has generously fuelled his own campaign, insisted that conservatives were rallying behind him - not Huckabee - as the best McCain alternative.
Republican party 'searching for its soul'
"The longer we can talk about McCain not being a conservative, that's going to continue to fracture his support in the party," a conservative Republican aide in the House of Representatives told AFP.
But Romney's defeat in California - and meager wins overall - were reportedly prompting some soul-searching in his campaign headquarters.
"Clearly, the Republican party is searching for its soul, and it still hasn't settled on a victor," said the House aide, who requested anonymity.
While Obama has largely erased what was once Clinton's double-digit lead in national public opinion polls, their tit-for-tat victories cast some doubt on his ability to harness his electric oratory.
"Obama has momentum, but he didn't win outright," said Davis.
"For all the talk about a surge, a shift in momentum, things are shaking out generally as expected," said Feldman. "Both campaigns are gearing up for the long haul right now. They're counting delegates."
But they were also looking ahead.
"The thing Republicans fear is that the Democrats will nominate someone who has tapped into a groundswell movement that is unlike anything we have seen in the last 15 years," said the House aide.
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