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Raul favourite to suceed Fidel
23/02/2008 13:04 - (SA)
Havana - Cuba's National Assembly on Sunday will choose Fidel Castro's successor, with his brother Raul Castro topping the list of likely candidates to steer Cuba through an unpredictable period of economic and political renewal.
Fidel, the West's last communist leader, announced on Tuesday he was stepping down after 49 years in office, and that he would reject the presidency if it was offered him again.
In an announcement that immediately became a milestone in Cuba's revolution, five days ahead of the Assembly vote the frail, 81-year-old icon stopped speculation about his health and the likelihood he would retake the country's helm he ceded "temporarily" to Raul on July 31 2006, shortly after he underwent surgery.
Fidel's statement on the website of Cuba's official newspaper Granma shot around the world: "I neither will aspire to, nor will I accept, the position of president of the Council of State and commander-in-chief."
Fidel's charismatic shadow
His decision paved the way for the recently elected Assembly to probably designate Raul Castro to head the 31-member Council of State for the next five years and fill his brother's shoes officially as Cuba's president.
After years in Fidel's charismatic shadow as Cuba's number two and defense minister, Raul, 76, would face a tough challenge if elected: dismantling a monolithic leadership, preparing the transition to a newer generation in power, reforming the economy and resolving domestic problems.
With half of Cuba's farmland idle; monthly salaries averaging 15 dollars, woefully inadequate even in a subsidised economy; national transport near collapse; shortfalls in housing and food stocks, and a shoddy bureaucracy, the outlook is not good.
Fidel's retirement will trigger readjustments in the political chessboard, both in the military leadership and the government, but the transition is still likely to bear the exiting leader's imprint, judging from his latest comments published on Friday.
Exhausted
Fidel said "these tense days, awaiting" the National Assembly voter on Sunday, had left him exhausted.
But he added that he was "now involved in figuring out how to make my vote count for the presidency of the National Assembly and the new Council of State."
His comments have sparked speculation that Raul could be passed over for the next generation of leaders.
On Tuesday Fidel Castro spoke of a "middle generation" that could take up the torch - taken by some to suggest that current Vice President Carlos Lage, 56, or Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, 42, could be chosen to succeed.
Even if Raul takes Cuba's helm next Sunday, the number two spot of first vice president - and first in line to take over the presidency in case of an emergency - will have to go to somebody outside the Castro family.
Former US Central Intelligence Agency analyst Brian Latell believes Raul is a "transition figure" who "will gain political strength to bring about the changes that were out of his reach" as provisional leader.
Largely economic changes
However, he cautioned, Raul, "like his brother, has no intention of opening up Cuba" in the political sense.
Most analysts predict Cuba's upcoming changes will be largely economic.
Some believe Raul could copy China's approach of opening the economy while keeping political control in the hands of the Communist Party - where Raul enjoys strong support.
"Those who know him think he's a pragmatist and that he will be more open to market reforms than Fidel," said Carmel Mesa-Lago, a University of Pittsburgh economist and Cuba expert.
In the 19 months since he took over as temporary leader, Raul Castro has made some timid adjustments in the economy but has promised bigger changes and has criticised the country's "excessive prohibitions."
However, Raul has made it clear that everything will take place "within socialism," and that the solutions to the country's problems will come "little by little."
In the transition, nobody doubts big brother Fidel will continue exerting a strong influence as Communist Party secretary.
In his Friday commentary, Fidel ruled out changes in the country's political system despite his stepping aside, although he recognised that Cuba was seeing "the end of one era."
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