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Grim forecast for Myanmar
15/05/2008 09:13 - (SA)
Yangon, Myanmar - International aid agencies were preparing everything from anti-snake venom kits to plastic roofing as they warned that a second wave of deaths will follow the Myanmar cyclone disaster unless the military regime lets in more aid quickly.
The Red Cross estimated that the cyclone death toll in Myanmar could be as high as 128 000 - a much higher figure than a tally by the government which continued to issue few visas to foreign aid experts, and all but shut them out of the hardest-hit area.
The grim forecast on Wednesday came as heavy rains drenched the devastated Irrawaddy River delta, disrupting aid operations already struggling to reach up to 2.5 million people in urgent need of food, water and shelter.
"Another couple of days exposed to those conditions can only lead to worsening health conditions and compound the stress people are living in," said Shantha Bloemen, a spokesperson for Unicef.
Myanmar's government issued a revised casualty toll on Wednesday night, saying 38 91 were known dead and 27 838 were missing.
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, however, said its estimate put the number of dead between 68 833 and 127 990. The Geneva-based body said the range came from a compilation based on other estimates from 22 different organisations, including the Myanmar Red Cross Society, and on media reports.
Even though the figures seemed precise, spokesperson Matthew Cochrane said they were not based on body counts, but were only rough estimates designed to provide Red Cross donors and partner organisations with an idea of the numbers being discussed within the aid community.
UN officials have said there could be more than 100 000 dead.
The Red Cross estimated the number of people needing help after Cyclone Nargis surged over the low-lying delta on May 3 at between 1.64 million and 2.51 million.
160 relief workers get approval
Aid agencies were preparing or moving in a wide-range of relief supplies including material for temporary shelters, rice, drinking water, kitchen utensils and medicines including 2 000 anti-snake bite kits. The UN World Health Organisation says an increase in snake bites is feared in coming days.
Myanmar has so far mostly limited the few international aid workers in the country to Yangon, the country's biggest city, and used police to keep foreigners out of the delta. However, it granted approval for a Thai medical team to visit the delta as early as Friday.
It said on Wednesday it would accept 160 relief workers from India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand, though it was not clear if anyone but the Thais would be permitted to go to the delta.
In New York, UN humanitarian chief John Holmes welcomed the move, but said it was not enough and demanded that Myanmar open up the delta region fully to outsiders.
The US-based World Vision, which has long-standing ties with the country, said on Wednesday that only two of its 21 visa applications have to date been approved.
The junta has insisted Myanmar can handle the disaster on its own - a stance that appears to stem not from its abilities but its deep suspicion of most foreigners, who have frequently criticised its human rights abuses and crackdowns on democracy activists.
"The government has a responsibility to assist their people in the event of a natural disaster," Amanda Pitt of the UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs said.
"We are here to do what we can and facilitate their efforts and scale up their response. It is clearly inadequate, and we do not want to see a second wave of deaths as a result of that not being scaled up," she said.
Myanmar's prime minister, Lt Gen Thein Sein, told visiting Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on Wednesday that the government was in control of the situation.
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