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Rundown of key swing states
01/11/2004 10:48 - (SA)
Washington - The White House race between President George W Bush and Senator John Kerry appeared to hinge on a few closely fought states as they vied for a majority of the decisive 538 electoral votes.
Bush appeared to have 25 states with a total of 213 electors nailed down, while Kerry had 14 states and the federal district for 190 electors. This left 11 states with 135 electors up for grabs.
A total of 270 electoral votes was needed for victory. Here is a brief rundown of the remaining "battleground" states:
Florida (27 electoral votes): Bush won the south-eastern state and the presidency in 2000 by 537 votes after a recount dispute settled by the US Supreme Court. Polls were split on who was ahead but Kerry was counting on an expected heavy turnout and Bush was looking to his brother Jeb, the state's governor, to pull out Republicans. A loss in Florida would spell trouble for Bush.
Ohio (20 electors): The midwestern state could hold the key to the election; no Republican has lost it and moved into the Oval Office. Bush, who won here four years ago, had a narrow lead in most polls. But Ohio, badly hit by the loss of industrial jobs to cheap labour economies, could be Kerry's best chance to snatch a major state from the Republican column.
Pennsylvania (21): Kerry had a slight lead in this eastern state that the Democrats won in 2000 and was a virtual must-win for them this year. Bush made the state and Ohio his most frequent campaign destinations and closed the gap in recent weeks. A victory for the Republican here could herald a relatively easy win for him in the Electoral College.
Michigan (17): Once all but written off to the Democrats, the midwestern state became a late battleground despite housing the auto industry capital and suffering high unemployment. A ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriages could draw out Republicans. Kerry had a small lead and a loss here would be devastating.
Minnesota (10): The north-central state has voted Democratic in seven straight presidential elections but the Republican presence has been spreading. Polls were split on who was on top here and independent Ralph Nader could end up as a spoiler, siphoning off crucial votes from Kerry.
Wisconsin (10): The midwestern state went Democratic in the last presidential election by a mere 5 700 votes and Bush was looking to Wisconsin to help cushion the possible loss of Florida or Ohio. Kerry came from behind to take a slight lead but the outcome could turn on the success of get-out-the-vote efforts by each side.
Iowa (7): Despite a heavy Democratic tradition, Bush lost the midwestern state four years ago in 2000 by just 4 144 votes. The Republican was looking at Iowa as another possible cushion and hoped to reverse the 2000 verdict in a state that is half industrial, half rural with a booming farm economy, and overwhelmingly white. Polls were split with a small edge to Bush.
New Hampshire (4): Once faithful to the Republicans, the northeastern state has been fickle in recent presidential elections. Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 before Bush took New Hampshire four years ago. Kerry had hopes of snatching it back but the polls showed the race a toss-up.
New Mexico (5): Bush lost the western state in 2000 by the smallest of margins, 366 votes, but hoped to win this year on the strength of an improved local economy. Both candidates courted the Hispanic vote and Kerry was counting on Governor Bill Richardson, a strong supporter, to bring out Democrats. A toss-up.
Colorodo (9): Bush won the western state by more than 8% in 2000 but Kerry smelled blood after Colorado lost 80 000 jobs under the Republican. Polls gave the president a modest lead but the electoral seats could be allotted proportionally if a referendum proposal passes on Tuesday.
Nevada (5): The western desert state went for Bush in 2000 but Kerry made a move in the hope of profiting from unhappiness over plans to make Nevada's Yucca Mountain a storage dump for nuclear waste. Polls gave the president a modest lead.
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