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Superdelegates to decide
07/03/2008 10:02 - (SA)
Washington - Hillary Rodham Clinton won't catch Barack Obama in the race for Democratic delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses, even if she wins every remaining contest.
But Obama cannot win the nomination with just his pledged primary and caucus delegates either, according to an analysis by the Associated Press.
That sets the stage for a pitched battle for support among "superdelegates," the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can support whomever they choose.
Two months into the voting, Obama can claim the most delegates chosen by voters.
Clinton wins big states
Clinton can claim victories in most of the big states.
What should a superdelegate do? Unsurprisingly, the two campaigns have different takes on that question.
"It is very difficult to see any scenario that Hillary Clinton would get the nomination in a way that doesn't rip the party apart," said Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, an Obama supporter. "I think that it would be a terrible mistake for the Democrats to not accept the will of the people who have turned out in primaries and caucuses."
Clinton spokesperson Doug Hattaway said Obama's lead in pledged delegates is "hardly a mandate".
"Some superdelegates will go with (the) pledged delegate count, but many will go with the candidate they think can win," Hattaway said. "We have a very compelling case to make on that front, given that we're winning general election swing states, must-win states and must-win constituencies."
Clinton won three out of four primaries this week, giving her campaign a much-needed boost after a month of defeats.
Obama leads
But she picked up only 12 more delegates than Obama, leaving him with a 140-delegate lead among those won in primaries and caucuses. There are only 614 delegates available in the remaining contests, meaning Clinton would have to win about 62% of them to overtake Obama, according to the AP analysis.
That's nearly impossible, given the way Democrats award delegates proportionally.
Obama is expected to win the Wyoming caucuses Saturday and the Mississippi primary next Tuesday, but Clinton is competing in both states to hold down his delegate accumulation. Her advisers acknowledge their past system of focusing on certain states and largely ignoring others - particularly those holding caucuses - was a mistake and helped Obama build a significant lead among pledged delegates.
Obama has won nominating contests in 27 states and territories, giving him the lead in pledged delegates, 1 360 to 1 220. Even if he wins every remaining pledged delegate - including 33 that haven't been awarded from previous races - he will fall short of the 2 025 needed to secure the Democratic nomination.
Superdelegates
That's where the superdelegates come in, the nearly 800 party and elected officials who will decide the nomination if both candidates stay in the race.
Clinton leads in endorsements from superdelegates, 242 to 209. But that lead has shrunk in the past month. Since an AP survey the week of Super Tuesday, Obama has added 53 superdelegates, while Clinton has had a net loss of one.
In the overall race for the nomination, Obama has 1 569 delegates, to 1 462 for Clinton, according to the latest AP tally.
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