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Hillary's big win too late?
14/05/2008 09:50 - (SA)
New York - Hillary Rodham Clinton saved her best for too late.
The former first lady soundly thumped rival Barack Obama in West Virginia on Tuesday just as the Illinois senator - well ahead in the popular vote and among pledged delegates - was beginning to shift focus to the general election and Republican John McCain. Not so fast, Clinton's West Virginia supporters said, handing her one of the biggest primary victories so far.
In winning, Clinton outlined her exit strategy: She effusively praised Obama while pledging to marshal her coalition through the final contests on June 3.
"I deeply admire Senator Obama," she said, "but I believe our case - a case West Virginia has helped to make - our case is stronger."
Senior Clinton campaign officials said the New York senator has stated unequivocally that she intends to remain a candidate through the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana, and will press for the party rules committee to resolve the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries.
"We're not getting out," campaign manager Maggie Williams told the Clinton staff recently, according to a senior campaign adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Period."
The advisor said that unless something dramatic happens to change the course of the race, the New York senator will likely bow out in early June.
Clinton running unusually strong
Clinton's West Virginia win - coming toward the end of the process - does little to alter the unforgiving political landscape she faces: only a handful of small contests left on the calendar and no indication that the superdelegates who may ultimately select the nominee have been persuaded she is the more electable candidate in the general election.
The New York senator's lopsided win in West Virginia had long been expected, given the demographic makeup of the state: It is 95% white, has no urban core and counts among its residents some of the poorest and least educated of any state. It also had just 28 delegates at stake.
Surveys of voter as they left the polls showed Clinton was running unusually strongly across virtually all demographic groups. She even led among many groups that Obama typically wins, including voters under age 30, college graduates, independents and the very liberal.
About half of West Virginia voters even said Obama shares the views of his fiery former pastor, Rev Jeremiah Wright. Obama broke with Wright after he made incendiary anti-American comments at a press conference last month in Washington.
Clinton has performed well among white working-class voters throughout the campaign in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Obama has struggled to adapt his message of hope and change to address the economic anxieties those voters face. That, in turn, has allowed the former first lady to openly question Obama's chances against McCain.
In her victory speech on Tuesday night, Clinton made a direct pitch to superdelegates on the electability argument, hoping they would reconsider the two candidacies.
Meeting with superdelegates
"I want to send a message to everyone who is still making up their minds, I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate," Clinton said.
She also planned to meet with superdelegates in Washington on Wednesday.
Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said Clinton's effort to question Obama's general election viability was not entirely sound but that the West Virginia results did send a message.
"General elections are a lot different than primaries - partisans in both parties end up voting for the nominee of their party in extreme numbers," Carrick said. "Having said all that, I think it's important for the Obama campaign to take a look at this, what their message is, and how they are communicating with these voters. He needs to do a better job of connecting with them."
Still, none of that changes the central problem for Clinton: Since her loss in North Carolina and narrow victory in Indiana last Tuesday, the New York senator has been battling the growing realisation that her once-formidable candidacy may have finally run out of steam.
Saddled with more than $20m in debt and struggling to fund the remaining contests, Clinton has watched a steady stream of superdelegates migrate toward the Illinois senator despite his apparent problems winning key constituencies.
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