Deaths set to soar in 20 years
2008-05-20 20:02
Geneva - Deaths from road accidents, cancer and heart disease are set to soar over the next 20 years as the developing world's populations get richer and live longer, according to a study out this week.
As low and middle-income economies grow by 2030, mortality rates from non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancer, and road crashes due to increased car ownership, will make up more than 30% of deaths worldwide, the World Health Organisation (WHO) found.
Meanwhile, deaths from factors currently associated with the developing world, such as nutritional deficiencies, malaria and tuberculosis, will fall, the Geneva-based organisation said in its "World Health Statistics 2008".
"Globally, deaths from cancer will increase from 7.4 million in 2004 to 11.8 million in 2030, and deaths from cardiovascular diseases will rise from 17.1 million to 23.4 million in the same period," the survey said.
Four main causes of death
Deaths due to road traffic accidents will increase from 1.3 million in 2004 to 2.4 million in 2030, mainly owing to increased motor vehicle ownership and use associated with economic growth in low- and middle-income countries.
The four main causes of death by 2030 will be ischaemic heart disease, strokes, chronic obstructive heart disease (COHD) and lower respiratory infections such as pneumonia, WHO said.
The rise in COHD is mainly seen coming from increased tobacco consumption, it added.
Tobacco-related illnesses caused some 5.4 million deaths in 2004 and are expected to soar by more than half, to 8.3 million by 2030, with 80% of these cases in developing countries, the WHO said.
Every tobacco user loses on average 15 years of life due to their habit, and use is particularly high in eastern and central Europe and southeast Asia.
HIV/Aids deaths to decline by 2030
Nearly two thirds of the world's smokers live in just 10 countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the US, WHO said.
Moreover, although anti-smoking measures such as advertising restrictions, health warnings and higher taxation do have an impact, not more than 5% of the world's population is fully covered by any one of these measures, the WHO warned.
Conversely, the WHO statistics found that the increase in deaths from non-communicable diseases will be accompanied by "large declines in mortality for the main communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional causes, including HIV infection, tuberculosis and malaria."
However, deaths worldwide from HIV/Aids are expected to rise from 2.2 million in 2008 to a maximum of 2.4 million in 2012 before declining to 1.2 million in 2030.