Economic woes to lower CO2?
2008-10-08 12:02
Nicosia - A slowdown in the world economy
may give the planet a breather from the excessively high carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions responsible for climate change, a Nobel
Prize winning scientist said on Tuesday.
Atmospheric scientist Paul J Crutzen, who has in the past
floated the possibility of blitzing the stratosphere with
sulphur particles to cool the earth, said clouds gathering over
the world economy could ease the earth's environmental burden.
Slower economic growth worldwide could help slow growth of
carbon dioxide emissions and trigger more careful use of energy
resources, though the global economic turmoil may also divert
focus from efforts to counter climate change, said Crutzen,
winner of the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work on the
depletion of the ozone layer.
"It's a cruel thing to say ... but if we are looking at a
slowdown in the economy, there will be less fossil fuels
burning, so for the climate it could be an advantage," Crutzen
told Reuters in an interview.
Saving energy
"We could have a much slower increase of CO2 emissions in
the atmosphere ... people will start saving (on energy use) ...
but things may get worse if there is less money available for
research and that would be serious."
CO2 emissions, released by the burning of fossil fuels in
power stations, factories, homes and vehicles, are growing at
almost 3% a year.
The UN Panel on Climate Change estimates that world
temperatures may rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius this century. The Group of Eight
industrial nations agreed in July to a goal of halving world
emissions by 2050.
Crutzen was in Cyprus for a lecture organised by the Cyprus
Institute, a research foundation.
He caused a stir with the publication of a paper in 2006
suggesting that injecting the common pollutant sulphur into the
stratosphere some 16km above the earth could snuff
out the greenhouse effect.
Acid rain
He believes that dispersing 1 million tonnes of sulphur into
the stratosphere each year, either on balloons or in rockets,
would deflect sunlight and cool the planet.
Scientists observed that world temperatures dropped by 0.5
degrees centigrade on average when Mount Pinatubo in the
Philippines erupted in 1991, spewing sulphur dioxide into the
atmosphere, and Crutzen said the idea originated with a Russian
scientist about 30 years ago.
"I am not saying we should do it, but it is one of the
options if we continue under present conditions. We should study
it," he said.
"If you look beyond a decade, two decades, and
nothing has been done (to counter warming) then we will have a
very serious problem on our hands."
Sulphur is a component of acid rain, which has harmful
effects on plants and fish.
"Acid rain is caused by sulphur dioxide emissions from the
ground, from the chimneys, and it's 50 million tonnes per year.
The experiment in the stratosphere would be one million tonnes
of sulphur per year. It's negligible," he said.
It would be an extreme endeavour, but for extreme
circumstances, he said.
In a 2007 report, the UN climate change panel said such
geo-engineering options were largely speculative and unproven,
with the risk of unknown side effects. Reliable cost estimates
had not been published, it said.
"The price is not a major factor... it's peanuts," said
Crutzen. "The cost has been estimated by some at $10m to $20m a year."