'Life doomed by climate woes'
2009-02-26 08:23
London - Climate change will wipe
out most life on Earth by the end of this century and mankind is
too late to avert catastrophe, a leading British climate
scientist said.
James Lovelock, 89, famous for his Gaia theory of the Earth
being a kind of living organism, said higher temperatures will
turn parts of the world into desert and raise sea levels,
flooding other regions.
His apocalyptic theory foresees crop failures, drought and
death on an unprecedented scale. The population of this hot,
barren world could shrink from about seven billion to one
billion by 2100 as people compete for ever-scarcer resources.
"It will be death on a grand scale from famine and lack of
water," Lovelock told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. "It
could be a reduction to a billion (people) or less."
By 2040, temperatures in European cities will rise to an
average of 43°C in summer, the same as
Baghdad and parts of Europe in the 2003 heatwave.
"The land will gradually revert to scrub and desert. You can
look at as if the Sahara were steadily moving into Europe. It's
not just Europe; the whole world will be changing in that way."
'Doomed to failure'
Attempts to cut emissions of planet-warming gases such as
carbon dioxide (CO2) in an attempt to reduce the risks are
probably doomed to failure, he added.
Even if the world found a way of cutting emissions to zero,
it is now too late to cool the Earth.
"It is a bit like a supertanker. You can't make it stop by
just turning the engines off," he said before the release of a
new book on climate change.
"It will go on for a long, long time. If by some magic you
could suddenly bring the C02 down, it wouldn't suddenly cool
off."
Campaigns to promote recycling and renewable energy sources
such as wind and solar power are a waste of time, Lovelock adds, although he concedes that nuclear power will help meet growing demand for energy.
While financial markets and politicians promote carbon
emissions trading schemes to reduce emissions and help the
environment, Lovelock says they, too, will have little effect.
"I don't see the efforts of governments around the world
succeeding in doing anything significant to cut back the
emissions of carbon dioxide," he said.
Creating safe havens
Efforts should instead be focused on creating safe havens in
areas which will escape the worst effects of climate change.
In his book, The Vanishing Face of Gaia, he adds: "We have
to stop pretending that there is any possible way of returning
to that lush, comfortable and beautiful Earth we left behind
some time in the 20th century."
The destruction of natural ecosystems for farmland,
deforestation and the rapid growth of the human race and
livestock have all exacerbated the problem, he added.
Scientists should not underestimate the crucial role of the
oceans as an indicator of rising temperatures and tool for
reducing carbon dioxide, Lovelock argues.
"Most of the Earth's surface is the ocean. That holds 800
times more than the atmosphere or the land. And there is no
question that the ocean is steadily warming," he said.
Public's 'lack of urgency'
A former sceptic of doom-laden predictions, Lovelock admits
he is not entirely comfortable with his role as a modern-day
Cassandra, the cursed prophetess of Greek mythology whose
counsel was ignored.
However, he says the scale and speed of the looming crisis
are so great he must speak out. He is still struck by the
public's apparent lack of urgency about the problem.
"Don't blame me for the terrible predictions," said
Lovelock, a sprightly, trim figure with silver hair who looks
younger than his age and was soberly dressed in navy jumper, tie
and casual trousers.
"The UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
even in its 2001 report was suggesting temperatures by 2040 and
2050 that were devastatingly hot. All I'm doing is drawing
people's attention to it."