Major hurricanes expected
2008-04-10 07:22
Miami - The Atlantic hurricane season starting in June will be very active in the northwest Atlantic with 15 tropical storms, eight of which will hit hurricane strength, four of them major, US forecasters warned on Wednesday.
The University of Colorado team led by William Gray, who has been in the hurricane predicting business for 25 years, revised upward his late 2007 preliminary forecast for 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes.
"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said Gray, who delivered his report at a weather conference in the Bahamas, a University of Colorado statement said.
The experts predicted the season - which stretches from June 1 to November 30 - would unleash four major hurricanes with winds of at least 178 km/h (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale which runs 1-5).
The historical average for the Atlantic hurricane season is 9.6 named tropical storms, 5.9 of which become hurricanes and 2.3 of which are major storms.
"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline is 69% compared with the last-century average of 52%," said Phil Klotzbach, a scientist at the University of Colorado.
"We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons," he added.
The 2007 season was milder than had been forecast but still devastating.
Two hurricanes with top wind speeds of more than 249 km/h hit. In August Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people as it tore through the Caribbean and part of Mexico. A month later Hurricane Felix left 150 people dead and major devastation in its wake on Nicaragua's Caribbean coast.
Warmer seas accounted for 40% of a dramatic surge in hurricanes from the mid-1990s, according to a study released in January by the British journal Nature.