Schizophrenia risk?
2008-01-22 14:03
New York - Five key factors can help
predict whether at-risk young people will go on to develop
schizophrenia, researchers have found.
The findings show that it is "feasible" to identify a
person's risk of schizophrenia as accurately as gauging his or
her risk of heart disease or diabetes, and raise the
possibility of preventing psychotic illness, Dr Tyrone D
Cannon of the University of California, Los Angeles and
colleagues say.
The earlier schizophrenia is identified and treated, the
less damaging its course, they note in the Archives of General
Psychiatry. However, current methods designed to predict
schizophrenia risk are imprecise, they point out.
Cannon and his team followed 291 teenagers considered to be
at high risk for developing schizophrenia for two-and-a-half
years to look for a more accurate predictive technique. All of
the study participants had been diagnosed with prodromal
syndrome for schizophrenia, meaning they had non-specific
symptoms such as paranoia, disorganised communication, and
unusual thoughts that could signal the onset of full-blown
disease.
Thirty-five percent of the study participants developed
schizophrenia during the study. Five characteristics identified
at the study's outset sharply increased the likelihood that a
teen would develop the disease: a genetic risk for
schizophrenia combined with recent decline in function; higher
levels of unusual thought content; more suspicion/paranoia;
more social impairment; and past or current substance abuse.
Among people with two or three of these characteristics, 68% to 80% developed schizophrenia during the course
of the study, the researchers report.
Cannon and his colleagues caution that the people in their
study were seeking treatment, so the results can't be applied
to the general population.
Nevertheless, they say their
findings suggest that the first two-and-a-half years after a
diagnosis of prodromal syndrome offer "a critical window of
opportunity" for identifying brain changes that may lead to
psychosis, and for intervening to slow or even prevent the
development of psychosis and disability.
In an editorial accompanying the study, Dr Patrick D
McGorry of the University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia and
colleagues write that large clinical trials are now needed to
investigate early treatment of schizophrenia.
"While there are risks in the endeavour to reshape the early course of schizophrenia and related psychoses, it is now within our grasp," they conclude.