Study predicts disaster
2004-11-09 08:53
Oslo - With temperatures in the Arctic rising at twice the rate of elsewhere, the ice cover there will within the next 100 years completely disappear in summer and the biodiversity will change dramatically, according to a scientific study published on Monday.
Even with only "moderate" future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, average temperatures in the region could rise by between four and seven degrees Celsius by year 2100, according to an Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report published by an international team of 300 researchers.
"It is important because what is going on there is what will happen on the rest of the planet," said Paal Prestrud, the head of the Norwegian Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) and vice president of ACIA.
Global warming could cause the Arctic ice cover to completely disappear in summer by the end of this century and threaten the species living in the ice field, like polar bears, the report produced for the Arctic Council warned.
According to one of the estimates used, the Arctic ice could melt away completely in warmer months as early as 2070.
Although the melting of the floating Arctic ice field won't cause sea levels to rise (ice takes more room than the water it contains), the melting of terrestrial glaciers is expected to push sea levels up by between 10 and 90 centimetres, forcing many coastal populations to move.
The Arctic Council will meet in Reykjavik this week to discuss the report.
The foreign ministers of the eight countries that make up the Council - the US, Canada, Russia, Japan, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and Norway, which alone account for about 30% of all human CO2 emissions - are meanwhile scheduled to meet in the Icelandic capital on November 24 to discuss the political ramifications of the findings.