Peace 'elusive' for Obama
2009-10-09 22:26
Washington - President Barack Obama has shifted US foreign policy away from confrontation by engaging US foes and working with allies but his quest for a more peaceful world remains elusive, analysts say.
The decision to award Obama the Nobel Peace Prize so early in his presidency not only surprised analysts but left some worried that it would put even more pressure on him to succeed and may irritate the anti-US leaders he is trying to engage.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East advisor in past US administrations, acknowledged that Obama has been active from the start in pursuing his aims to engage with US foes Iran, Syria, Cuba, Myanmar and North Korea.
He also shares the views of other analysts that Obama has already improved the atmosphere for co-operation with Russia, which is key to diplomatic efforts to curb Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions.
Ties with Russia hit record lows under Obama's predecessor George W Bush.
'He's everywhere'
"He's everywhere" in foreign policy, and "when you're in a hole, the first order of business is to stop digging, which he's done," said Miller, now an analyst with the Wilson International Centre for Scholars.
Obama has shown the world that the United States is no longer the confrontational superpower it was under his predecessor, who ended up alienating important allies with the invasion of Iraq and hardening the resolve of US adversaries, Miller said.
"But how consequential have these successes been?" he asked.
"You don't award somebody an achievement for (diplomatic) process. You wait and see what the process produces," said Miller, who described Obama's diplomacy as "a work in progress."
The Obama administration is still searching for a strategy to defeat a resurgent Islamist militant insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and despite some worthy initiatives, Obama has made missteps, including pushing for Arab-Israeli peace when conditions are not ripe, Miller said.
"He's more or less not succeeding and has caused some loss of credibility," he said.
Down payment
The Nobel committee may be making a "down payment to encourage the president" or it may simply be thrilled that the Democrats are back in power, but the prize could hurt Obama, he said.
"I don't think it helps, because on one hand it raises the bar, it puts pressure on the president to achieve, but on the other hand, it lowers the bar and diminishes what he has achieved," Miller said.
Stewart Patrick, a foreign policy analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations, agreed the prize was premature.
"The president has signalled a major shift in style and to some degree on substance but this has really yet to come to fruition," Patrick said.
"He's shown more flexibility and willingness to engage in the UN Security Council and attempt to engage with American enemies" than his predecessor, he said.
Patrick noted that Obama has also made a much stronger effort to combat climate change as well as restore the international rule of law, with his commitment to close the Guantanamo Bay prison camp.
'Poisoned chalice'
Henri Barkey, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the prize may be a poisoned chalice.
"He is not the sole player in all the problems that the Nobel committee wants him to deal with," he pointed out.
"For the others like (Russian Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin, Obama is a newcomer who must still prove himself. This will irritate them," Barkey said.
The prize is also "a slap" to US adversaries including Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, according to Barkey.
"These people mock the prize, but the fact that the Americans won, it bothers them," he said.
