ANC-DA cold war 'may sharpen'

2004-04-15 22:06

Pretoria - The respective strong showings of the African National Congress and Democratic Alliance in Wednesday's general elections may sharpen the cold war between the two parties in future, said independent analyst Aubrey Matshiqi on Thursday night.

Provisional results out by 20:00 showed the ANC in the national lead with 69.8%, followed by the DA with 13.51%.

It appeared as if by the end of the vote tallying, the ANC would emerge with an "absolute majority of the majority" and the DA an "absolute majority of the minority", Matshiqi said at the elections results centre in Pretoria.

"The question is what that kind of polarisation portends for the future of the country," he said.

One would have a DA emboldened by its performance, and an ANC so dominant that it was likely to continue "not listening" to the opposition, Matshiqi said.

"This might sharpen the cold war between the ANC and the DA."

'ANC must show leadership'

That could, in turn, lead to a situation where people who voted for the DA because they were dissatisfied with, or fearful of, the present dispensation would have their perceptions reinforced.

"The challenge here will be for the ANC to show leadership and be the one that enters into a conversation with all South Africans - because there is life after the elections," Matshiqi said.

Opposition voters appear to have vindicated the DA's aggressive opposition tactics, he added.

Turning to the performance of the Independent Democrats, which had garnered 1.88% of the votes counted by 20:00, Matshiqi said its showing was not a surprise, but was pleasant, nevertheless.

"It shows that our democracy has the capacity to produce new voices."

Whether that voice would be effective still remained to be seen, he added.

"I do not believe the ID is necessarily the answer to people's requirement for a credible and effective opposition. I don't see it eclipsing the DA, even in the next election."

He did not foresee any new political alliances in the short-term, saying the ID was likely to seek to maintain its independence despite being courted by several other parties.

DA-IFP agreement 'very awkward'

Ultimately, Matshiqi said, voters were likely to become dissatisfied with existing opposition parties and shift in coming years more towards the creation of a social sector movement.

This was especially likely to happen if the ANC failed to deliver at a level beyond mere policy.

"If I were the DA or any other opposition party, I would not be complacent."

On KwaZulu-Natal, Matshiqi described the co-operation agreement between the DA and Inkatha Freedom as "very awkward", given the differences between their approaches to opposition - the DA being aggressive and the IFP more co-operative.

Depending on the final results, the IFP would have a difficult choice to make - to join forces with its traditional ally, the ANC, or with the DA.

Matshiqi said the IFP, despite having concluded a co-operation agreement with the DA, had not closed the door completely on the ANC.

"It has been an exercise of hedging its bets."

If the ANC wins the province convincingly, its choice of premier would play a major role in the IFP's final decision.

By 20:00, the ANC was leading the vote tally in KwaZulu-Natal with 42.51%, followed by the IFP with 38.35% and the DA with 11.03%.

Western Cape

Turning to the Western Cape, Matshiqi said that if it was not for the New National Party's presence in that province, its former stronghold, Thursday would have been the party's funeral.

"To the extent that the ANC will keep the NNP alive, its future is only in that province. And it will be limited to being a power broker."

By 20:00, the NNP had garnered 1.83% of the national votes counted.

In the Western Cape, it trailed with 9.82% after the ANC with 42.26% and the DA with 29.89%.

Matshiqi said there appeared to be a political crisis among parties to the left of the ANC - including the Azanian People's Organisation, the Socialist Party of Azania and the Pan Africanist Congress.

The idea has been mooted for these parties to join forces, "but the problem is that there is no scale so sensitive as to pick up their combined weight".

Despite high levels of poverty and unemployment and the ANC government's orthodox economic policies, these leftist parties have failed to strike a chord with ordinary people.

This was most likely because they were perceived as having no practical solutions to the country's problems, Matshiqi said.

Watch the provisional results of the national and provincial elections as they come in on News24.com

- SAPA