ANC casts about for new leader
2004-04-15 17:30
Johannesburg - The landslide election victory by the African National Congress kicks off behind-the-scenes jockeying to succeed Thabo Mbeki and become South Africa's third president in 2009.
Mbeki, who is certain to win a second term as president when the new ANC-dominated assembly votes next week, has repeatedly said he will not seek to change the constitution to remain in office beyond his five-year mandate.
No one has come forward to express interest in the top post but the overwhelming victory of the ANC 10 years after the end of apartheid confirms that it will be the party of power for many years to come.
Partial election results showed on Thursday the ANC had won its biggest election triumph since 1994, taking more than two-thirds of the vote in the national parliament, which is to elect the president on April 23.
The ANC is due to hold its party conference in 2007 to choose Mbeki's successor, who is almost certain to become the third democratically elected president in 2009.
"Between now and 2007, there will be lobbying, but there is nobody apparent who is standing out at the moment," says Judith February, an analyst at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa).
"It might not solely be someone of Mbeki's choice, although he might want to push certain people," she said.
While Nelson Mandela passed the mantle to his deputy Mbeki, the same transition may not take place with Jacob Zuma, a key player in KwaZulu-Natal province and a former head of ANC's intelligence department during the apartheid struggle.
Zuma last month brushed off predictions of a divisive leadership race within the ANC, saying: "Have no worries. In terms of leadership there is stability."
Among those whose names have surfaced in local media and commentary as a possible successor is Foreign Minister Nkosana Dlamini-Zuma, who is said to be very close to Mbeki.
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel is also popular with the ANC rank-and-file and with international lenders who like his fiscal policies.
Other possibilities include Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota, currently the party's number three official as national chairperson, and Joel Neshitenzhe, the government spokesperson.
Speculation is also rife about a comeback by former ANC heavyweight Cyril Ramaphosa, who was said to be Mandela's favourite but has since 1999 left politics to become a wealthy businessman.
But Ramaphosa appears to have ruled out a leadership bid, saying: "I'll do it in a hundred years."
Hints about who will succeed Mbeki may come with the appointment of the new cabinet that is expected to feature some new faces.