Dlamini-Zuma tipped for deputy
2004-04-17 10:48
Cape Town - When President Thabo Mbeki announces his new cabinet in two weeks' time, South Africa will see new faces in at least four ministerial seats which have been vacated due to death, retirement or redeployment.
The ministers who are already out of the game are Transport Minister Dullah Omar, who died recently after a long illness, Justice Minister Penuell Maduna and Environmental and Tourism Minister Valli Moosa, both of whom have announced that they are retiring from parliament, and the Inkatha Freedom Party's Ben Ngubane, who is to vacate his position as Arts, Culture, Science and Technology minister to be ambassador to Japan.
Mbeki is expected to announce the new cabinet on April 29.
HSRC political analyst Professor Adam Habib said the futures of Health Minister Manto Tshablalala-Msimang and Home Affairs Minister Mangosuthu Buthelezi might also be in the balance.
Habib said three factors might affect how Mbeki and his advisors select the new cabinet ministers and deputy ministers.
"Firstly, he is going to want some degree of continuity between the old cabinet and the new. We also know that he likes the idea of employing a fair proportion of women in his cabinet. He also likes to see people who come into the cabinet at deputy level and perform well, moving up to ministerial level."
Jacob Zuma
Habib believed that the biggest quandary facing Mbeki is the future of deputy president Jacob Zuma. One possible option is to redeploy Zuma to be premier of KwaZulu-Natal.
"Zuma's role in the arms scandal is impacting heavily and negatively on the ANC. The party recognises this and Mbeki is very cognisant of the fact that Zuma's credibility as a candidate for the future presidency has been weakened,
given the scandal around his name.
"But, Zuma has enough support within the party for him not to be simply sidelined.
"I think Mbeki would prefer to move Zuma to the premiership of KwaZulu-Natal, but, whether there would be sufficient political will and support from the party is a different matter."
Habib said such a move would open upt the question of deputy president again. "The talk is that he likes the idea of appointing a woman and he needs somebody he can work with
closely.
"In that context, Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is not a bad choice. Although she lacks the stature that somebody who could eventually be targetted for the presidency should have, she has other skills. If Jacob Zuma is appointed as premier, and the position opens up, then Dlamini-Zuma is a serious possibility for the deputy presidency," Habib said.
"Tshabalala-Msimang has performed disastrously. Her image had been seriously tainted by her performance in the past two to three years."
On the future of Buthelezi, Habib said: "It depends on the relationship between the ANC and the IFP in KZN. But one thing is certain: Mbeki is very committed to having a multi-party cabinet. Mbeki would definitely prefer to have the IFP in the cabinet. It just depends on whether they can structure
the deal and whether he can afford the price."
Justice minister
Habib believed deputy Justice Minister Cheryl Gillwald was a likely option as Justice minister.
"One of the big things in the ANC at present is its emphasis on including the white population in positions," Habib said.
"The opening up of the justice portfolio could provide an interesting opportunity to promote a woman and someone who is white."
Habib said Education Minister Kader Asmal has two factors working against him - his health and his age.
"But, what is in his favour is his enormous energy and the fact that he has begun a fundamental transformation of the higher education system.
Habib said he believed that the high-performing Mineral and Energies Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Nguka will stay in the cabinet. "But the big question is whether she would be shifted to another cabinet position.
"That brings us to (Trade and Industry Minister) Alec Erwin who is rumoured to be moving to a position with the World Trade Organisation. If the position of Trade and Industry Minister suddenly becomes available, then Phumzile would be the logical choice as the new minister to replace Erwin.
She has done a good job in Mineral and Energy Affairs. She has a reputation for being efficent and the markets and business community know her well. She is also very close to Mbeki, another factor which would be important in that position.
Habib said two new names which could emerge in Mbeki's new cabinet are those of Gauteng MEC for finance Jabu Moleketi and national council of provinces chair Naledi Pandor. "Moleketu has performed very well in Gauteng and there is a strong chance we might see him coming into the Finance Ministry - possibly to shadow Trevor Manuel for a while and then to take over when Trevor moves out. Alternatively, Mbeki could take the bold step of appointing Moleketi directly as finance minister and move Trevor Manuel into the trade and industry portfolio.
Pandor
"The other dark horse to watch is Naledi Pandor who has been mooted several times as someone who could come into the next cabinet. She has some interest in education, so if Asmal was replaced, it would be her who would replace him. Perhaps she will be appointed as deputy minister of dducation to get her ready to take over in three years' time.".
Habib said he believed Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakulu would retain his seat in the Cabinet.
Habib said he expects Land Affairs Minister Thoko Didiza to remain in the position despite what he called her department's "dismal" record in land delivery. Habib said Forestry and Water Affairs Minister Kader Asmal will probably retain his cabinet position.
As a replacement for Valli Moosa, he suggested Environmental Affairs and Tourism portfolio committee chairperson Gwen Mahlangu. Another name that has come up as a possible new minister is Rejoyce Mabudhafasi, the deputy minister.
Meanwhile, other names that have come up as possible new names on the block in terms of cabinet positions are those of Northern Cape premier Manne Dipico and North West Province premier Popo Molefe.
Van Schalkwyk
New National Party leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk's name is being thrown around as a possible replacement for Ngubane in the arts, culture, science and technology portfolio - but this would be second prize for Van Schalkwyk who has set his sights firmly on the premiership of the Western Cape.
While some analysts are also suggesting Van Schalkwyk might end up in Moosa's tourism and environmental affairs post, Idasa's Richard Calland believes there is a strong possibility that Van Schalkwyk could replace Buthelezi as minister of home affairs.
Calland believes the appointment of Van Schalkwyk to the position would be "plausible, logical and reasonable", adding that, given the present tensions between the ANC and the IFP, that the ruling party might jettison the IFP - and effectively "swop partners" in key positions.
With a growing likelihood of the ANC taking the premiership of the Western Cape for its own premier candidate, Ebrahim Rasool, Calland said the ANC would have to compensate the NNP for its co-operation in another way.
"The ANC needs the Nats in the Western Cape and also, probably in KwaZulu-Natal," Calland said. "Depending on what happens in KZN, the ANC might find a way of removing Buthelezi from the national government and of bringing Van Schalkwyk in. But if they co-operate with the NNP, they have to give Van Schalkwyk something else - preferably a cabinet position."
Calland said he believes Van Schalkwyk would be "quite good" in the position as minister of home affairs.
"He is a good technician and he is well organised - and what that department really needs is good organisation, calm and stability."