Survey: ANC can expect 65.2%
2004-04-09 07:43
Cape Town - Hot off the press survey results released on Thursday by the
respected research company Markdata indicate that the African National
Congress will get 65.2% of the national vote next week, making the
party very slightly short of a two-thirds majority.
The survey places the Democratic Alliance second in the electoral race,
with 11.8%, the Inkatha Freedom Party in third place with 8.3% and the Independent Democrats next with 7.1% of the national
vote.
The survey, commissioned by the Helen Suzman Foundation and conducted among
a sample of 2 000 South Africans from diverse circumstances during February
and early March, indicates that the New National Party will get 4.2% of the vote, the Pan Africanist Congress 1.1%, the United Democratic
Movement 1% and the African Christian Democratic Party 0.9%, with other small parties together receiving a total of 0.4%.
Releasing the results, Markdata said respondents were presented
with a list of political parties and asked which party they intended
supporting in the election.
"Those who indicated that they would not vote
or were very unlikely to vote, were excluded from these results. Respondent
who were uncertain about which political party they would support (20% of the sample) were categorised on the basis of other questions,
including their popularity ratings of the major parties and their leaders."
ANC 'leading' in KZN, Western Cape
Markdata also provided predicted results for the two most hotly-contested
provinces, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape.
The estimated results in KZN are ANC 47.5%; IFP 26.1%; Independent Democrats 10.8%; DA 8.1%; New NP 5.4%; PAC 0.9%; ACDP 0.8% and other parties together, 0.4% with
the UDM having a negligible vote.
In the Western Cape, the survey has predicted that the ANC will receive
42.4% of the vote; DA 21.6%; ID 17.1%; NNP 13.8%; UDM 2.2%; ACDP 1.2%; IFP 1.2% and other
parties 0.4% combined.
Interviewed by the Natal Witness, Dr Lawrence Schlemmer, one of
Markdata's directors, said the results in KZN and the Western Cape indicate
that, in both provinces, the ANC and NNP in alliance stand a "very good"
chance of obtaining a combined majority.
Patricia de Lille's popularity 'astounding'
Schlemmer said the big surprise in this poll is the "astounding
popularity" of ID leader Patricia de Lille.
"This is despite the fact that
hers is such a new party.
"But it is important to note that, as the election draws closer, people
will tend to reconsider their vote. The ID's popularity may fall a little as
the election gets closer.
"When crunch-time comes, people sometimes revert to
the parties they supported previously, but I do not think the figure
predicted for the ID will fall very much," Schlemmer said.
Questioned about the accuracy of Markdata surveys, Schlemmer said that, in
1999, they predicted the ANC majority with less than one percent difference.
"In 1994, we were a few percent out, but we got the order of the parties
exact. Our results have generally been the closest to the mark in the
past," Schlemmer said.
'Undecideds'
Responding to the survey results, DA director of strategy, Ryan Coetzee,
said on Thursday that the Markdata survey falls short because it fails to
provide the results of the "voting intention" questions in which 20%
of the sample was undecided.
"They have distributed the
'undecideds' based on what they feel about parties and their leaders.
"You
cannot work out how 'undecideds' are going to go based on how favourably
they feel towards parties and their leaders," Coetzee said.
Coetzee said he believes the DA could get 17.1% of the vote next Wednesday,
depending on turnout and the way in which undecided voters break on election
day.
"As opposed to what the Markdata survey finds, we will get more than 11
and the ACDP will get more than they predict. The ID will get less and the
New NP will also get less votes than Markdata predicts," Coetzee said.
ID spokesperson Marlon Kruger said the party welcomes the results.
"We are
very pleased with the overwhelming support the SA public have shown us.
"We
are not surprised by the high predictions for the ID in KZN and the Western
Cape, as we have been working non-stop on the ground. The fruits of our
labour in the provinces is paying off."