Tactical voting expected
2004-04-05 23:28
Cape Town - Political parties in the Western Cape expect a measure of tactical voting particularly among those who have traditionally not backed the ANC.
While ANC provincial secretary general Mcebisi Skwatsha said his party was working on winning "over 50%" of the provincial vote, he saw some traditional New National Party and Democratic Alliance voters voting for the ID at provincial level.
He was not certain whether they would vote for another party at national level when voters go to the polls on April 14.
However, he believed ANC voters would vote for that party at both levels.
This would reflect the reality of the vote in the Western Cape in 1999 when the ANC got roughly 42% at both levels.
In contrast, however, the New National Party got 38% at provincial level, but this fell to 34% at national level.
Most of the vote the NNP did not receive at national level went to the DA - at that time in the form of the Democratic Party - or other small parties.
'Two-horse race'
Democratic Alliance MPL Robin Carlisle said there was now "a two-horse race" in the Western Cape.
These parties - the DA and the ANC - were "at full gallop" and were starting to squeeze out the smaller parties. The vote effectively was "(DA leader Tony) Leon versus (ANC leader President Thabo) Mbeki".
But he acknowledged that a portion of Independent Democrats - supporters of Patricia de Lille - would probably vote for her nationally but vote for the DA in the province - as it was seen as the strongest force against the ANC.
ID chief of staff Brent Meersman confirmed this view saying there were voters who wanted a strong ID at national level and thought "wrongly" that the DA was the best option provincially.
'Chopping and changing'
However, there were also voters who were "sick and tired" of the unpredictable politics of the Western Cape - with several changes of government in recent years - who would vote against the traditional parties such as the DA or NNP. Such voters could vote for the ID in the province.
"We have seen a chopping and changing of loyalty here (in the Western Cape) and political paralysis of decision making. People are fed up with the politics of the see-saw circus that we have got."
New National Party spokesperson Andries Cornelissen said tactical voting could happen in the highly contested provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape where the "basis of politics" was different from the rest of the country.
He said the main choice was between an ANC premier - likely to be Ebrahim Rasool - or an NNP premier, incumbent NNP leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk.
He said some people might decide they preferred an NNP premier but they might be voting ANC or even DA at national level.
Cornelissen acknowledged that political parties did not encourage tactical voting in their campaign strategies, but sophisticated voters could split their vote.
PAC
Skwatsha said that there had been tactical voting by for example Pan Africanist Congress voters in the past. Some of these had voted for the ANC in the Western Cape knowing that their parties were only a presence nationally.
In the 1999 national and provincial election the PAC got 7 708 votes but this rose to 8 061 nationally. The Democratic Party (now DA) got 189 183 provincially (or 11.91%) but 227 087 nationally (or 14,18%).
The African Christian Democratic Party received 44 323 votes provincially then or 2.79% while it received 49 807 nationally or 3.11%.
The Federal Alliance (now part of the DA) received 4 153 votes or 0.26% provincially but 8 849 votes nationally or 0.55%.
The ANC received 668 106 votes in 1999 provincially or 42.07%, but it received 682 748 or 42.62% nationally.
The NNP received 609 38.39% provincially,but 550 34.38% nationally from the Western Cape.