No serious political change in F State - expert

2011-05-11 22:42

Bloemfontein - No real change was expected in the Free State's political landscape after the May 18 local government elections, a political analyst said on Wednesday.

Andre Duvenhage, political analyst at the North West University, said: "The Free State has a limited number of conflicts at the moment, despite incidents such as Ficksburg."

He was referring to the death of Andries Tatane, allegedly at the hands of police, during a protest last month.

He said since Free State ANC chairperson Ace Magashule became premier, the conflicts in the party had subsided to a semblance of one-mindedness.

Nationally, however various factors would affect the ANC's performance and these included conflicts within the party, problems with candidate lists, the number of independent candidates due to ANC infighting, bad service delivery and the somewhat stronger Democratic Alliance.

Duvenhage said what was working in the ANC's favour in this election was its control over state machinery.

"It has access to the resources of the state, which it could use to its benefit."

A sitting politician would always have some additional benefits at his side during elections.

The ANC had also managed to project itself as a freedom party.

"It's the struggle party...the party that brought freedom to people, which it has a right to."

In addition there was no real "genuine, strong" opposition from within the black voting community.

"Cope has fallen somewhat," he said, referring to the ANC breakaway party.

Duvenhage however felt the factors working against the ANC were stronger and there was an expectation the party's support would fall marginally on national level.

"Nevertheless, I believe the ANC would have by far control over most local governments, but the Cope factor might have some influence on this, which would have to be seen."

Duvenhage said as far as ANC support was concerned the Free State was one of the more stable provinces in the country.

"I expect that the Free State would end at least on the national average of the ANC, even maybe a bit better."

- SAPA