ANC risks losing 'born free' voters
2013-01-28 14:38
Johannesburg - When Nelson Mandela and the ANC
dreamt of a future after apartheid, they probably imagined someone
like Fulufhelo Davhana, a young black who has seen the doors of opportunity
opened wide and is destined for achievement.
But Davhana, a 23-year-old accounting student at the
University of Johannesburg's Soweto Campus, is dreaming of a future when the ANC
elders who ended white minority rule no longer call the shots.
"Our current leaders don't understand about the
'born free' generation because they are still stuck in the past," he said.
Those born after apartheid ended
in 1994 and have lived only under democracy, can vote for the first time in
presidential elections next year and could begin reshaping politics in Africa's
largest economy.
Many older people still feel grateful to the ANC
for winning their freedom, ensuring the party unbroken power for the past two
decades.
However, the "born frees" are not as swayed by
history as their elders, and studies show that most people reaching the minimum
voting age of 18 have no party allegiance.
With youth unemployment double the national average at
about 50%, they instead want to hold the ANC under President Jacob Zuma
accountable for the rampant corruption and bureaucratic incompetence that even
the party admits are undermining its governance.
A TV advertising campaign this month by FNB has stoked
the conflict.
It shows teenagers speaking hopefully of their future but
criticising the ANC for being stuck in the past and unwilling to fix current
problems.
"We need to stop relying on government and rely on
ourselves," one student said.
"The government is only thinking for themselves. I'm
from a rural area and the government doesn't see what's happening," said
another.
Some members of the 101-year-old ANC accused FNB of
treason and sending messages that were "disrespectful to elders".
The chief executive of FNB's parent, financial group
FirstRand, met the ANC on Friday to clear the air.
While the meeting took the heat out of their row, the
generational divide will only grow in importance.
It could transform elections which the ANC has become
used to winning with the support of voters thankful that it ended the system of
racial oppression.
South Africa is a young country: About 40% of the
population was born after 1994.
Nearly two million born frees can vote next year, when
Zuma is likely to seek re-election.
This is a relatively small percentage of the 23
million-strong electorate.
However, the born frees will make up about a third of
voters by 2019, when the following presidential election is due, according to
census and election data.
What’s to be worried about?
Zuma says he is unconcerned.
"The overwhelming percentage of South Africa is very
young so it is this very population that is joining the ANC, which is voting
[for] the ANC, so we don't have a worry," he told Reuters last week.
The numbers tell a different story. Nearly 75% of South
Africans aged 20 to 29 did not vote in 2011 elections for local posts,
according to electoral data and studies by government-affiliated groups, far
more than in other age groups.
People in that age group were more likely to have
taken part in violent street protests against the local ANC than to have voted
for the ruling party, studies showed.
Zuma, a 70-year-old Zulu traditionalist, who has called
for young ANC members to obey their elders, has looked to older voters for
support in rural areas instead of the young blacks flocking to the cities.
Last year he told parliament he was worried about black
people "who become too clever" because they could become the sharpest
critics of African tradition and culture.
Such comments have stirred up storms on social media but
while the young voters may not like Zuma, so far they appear to be withholding
their votes from any leader.
Many hope the ANC will start serving their interests
better and are not flocking to the main DA, which is trying to woo young blacks
and shed its image as the party of white privilege.
"We are tired of being told 'we are going to change
this and we are going to change that'. If implementation starts, then that is
where a party will get my vote," said Davhana.
Time bomb or economic boom
According to the Reconciliation Barometer, an annual
survey published for more than a decade that tracks the views of young adults,
the born free generation is optimistic, confident the economy will grow and
distrustful of current leaders.
"[The] findings also point to a disconnect and a
rising cynicism between younger South Africans, the born free generation, and
this country's past," it said.
ANC governments have made great strides in bringing new
schools, housing and running water to the impoverished millions.
But they have also set up a labour market ranked as one
of the world's most rigid where it is difficult for young people to land a job.
A study by the South African Institute of Race Relations
said about half of today's youth faced a lifetime of unemployment.
The born frees have been described as a ticking time
bomb, needing massive social grants that could bankrupt the country, if the
tide is not turned on unemployment.
But if the power of the generation is harnessed, it could
pay an enormous demographic dividend.
The generation marks a temporary bulge in the birth rate
two decades ago, and the growing numbers of young will have a proportionately
declining population of elderly to support. This means SA could avoid
the problems of an ageing population that many Western countries experience -
provided the young can find work.
"We have so many young people in the country who are
more educated than there were previously and don't have the same burden of
older people to support," said Sharlene Swartz, a director at the Human
Sciences Research Council.
"The population level beneath them is dropping and
this could lead to a huge economic growth spurt for the country."
Back at the University of Johannesburg campus in Soweto,
near where students rose against the apartheid government in the 1970s, Wendy
Langa, 21, is studying to become an entrepreneur.
"It is empowering to know that South Africa is born
free and there is no more struggling. We need to focus more on education and
making this country a better place," she said.
Langa said she would vote next year "not for what a
party did in its past, but what it will do in the future".
