Bird flu 'will spread'
2005-10-18 07:50
London - Bird flu can be expected to spread to other countries, but the biggest threat of it mutating into a human virus that could kill millions across the world remains in Asia, the World Health Organisation says.
Local authorities moved quickly to stamp out the disease where it was found in Romania and Turkey in recent days, but in Asia the virus has become widespread among poultry and the continued mixing of people and domestic fowl creates conditions more favourable for its mutation into a strain that could catastrophically affect humans.
"There's no question that we will expect further outbreaks of avian disease in different countries," said Dr Michael Ryan, director of the Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response at the WHO. "The Americas, Africa and the Middle East are also very much in our minds."
Blamed on migrating birds
The comments came as Greece reported preliminary tests found bird flu in a turkey and had narrowed down the virus to the H5 type. However, further tests at an expert lab are needed to confirm the finding and determine whether the virus is the deadly H5N1 strain from Asia that experts are tracking.
The strain was confirmed in Turkey on Thursday and in Romania on Saturday. It has also been detected in Russia. The spread is being blamed on wild birds migrating from Asia to Africa.
Health experts are trying to stamp out poultry outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu strain for fear it could mutate into a human virus capable of killing millions of people. The more virus there is, the more opportunities there are for it to mutate.
"These introductions in Europe do represent a worrying development ... the pandemic risk is increased by the very extension of the bird disease," Ryan said. "This just adds more complexity to what is already a serious issue."
Experts believe a human flu pandemic derived from a bird virus is inevitable, but it is unknown whether the deadly H5N1 strain now spreading from Asia to Europe will be the culprit.
However, if a human pandemic strain is going to emerge from the H5N1 virus, Asia will be the likely cradle, because containment efforts there have not been so successful, the World Health Organisation said.
So far, 117 people in Asia, mostly poultry farmers, have caught the disease and 60 of them have died. Nearly all infections have been traced to direct contact with infected birds.
- AP