Crime stats: Mixed response
2004-09-21 08:54
Borrie la Grange, Pieter du Toit, Liezel de Lange
The latest crime statistics sketch a rosy picture, but experts and commentators are not convinced.
The figures show that nine of the country's 20 listed crimes have decreased since 1994/95, eight have stabilised and just three - robbery with aggravating circumstances, illegal possession of firearms and ammunition and drug related crime - have increased.
Experts are surprised by the drastic decrease in certain violent crimes.
If population growth is taken into account, the murder rate dropped by 9,9% to 19 824 during the past year.
It was the first time since 1994/95 that less than 20 000 people were murdered in a single year.
Police are winning
"Violent crimes, particularly murder, are a good indicator of the crime level in any country.
"This is totally unexpected and surprising that it has dropped so much in one year. It seems this is proof that the police is winning the fight against crime," Anton du Plessis of the Institute for Security Studies said.
"The question is whether such successes will be sustainable over the long term."
Lisa Vetten, a researcher at the Centre for the Study of Reconciliation and Violence, was less positive. "I would like to believe that the murder rate really did drop by this much.
"A Medical Research Council study showed that in about seven percent of post-mortem examinations where murder could have been the cause of death, the cases were not investigated as murders.
"Statistics are only as good as the person who compiles them."
Opposition parties welcomed the decrease, but pointed out that crime levels were still too high.
"The drop in the number of murders is particularly welcome, but the fact that nearly 20 000 South Africans were murdered between April 2003 and March 2004 is still shocking," Roy Jankielsohn, Democratic Alliance MP, said. He compared the figure with Britain, where about 850 murders take place a year.
Until people "see" a decrease in crime and feel "safe", all attempts to reduce crime levels will fail to win public trust, no matter what the statistics say, said Cecil Burgess of the Independent Democrats.
Louis Green of the African Christian Democratic Party warned that the progress "looks good on paper", but the "average South African still feels threatened".
These crimes are on the increase:
Drug-related crime: 14,2%
Illegal possession of firearms and ammunition: 4,2%
Robbery with aggravating circumstances: 3,2%
Shop theft: 2,1%
Drunken driving: 10,1%
These percentages were calculated incorporating the country's population growth.
These crimes are decreasing:
Attempted murder: 17,8%
Murder: 7,8%
Robbery: 7,8% (aggravating excluded)
Assault with the intent to do grievous bodily harm: 4,3%
Ordinary assault: 2,6%
Rape: 1,4%
Break-ins at businesses: 14,4%
Theft from cars: 14%
Stock theft: 13,4%
House break-ins: 8,3%
Car theft: 7,3%
Other theft: 4,2%
Commercial crimes: 2,6%