'Don't jump to conclusions'
2005-07-07 16:25
Cape Town - Commentators had to beware of drawing early conclusions on Thursday's bomb blasts in London, warned South African security analysts.
About four bombs exploded in the British capital, killing more than 40 people and injuring up to 1 000.
The Institute for Security Studies' Peter Gastrow said he was unable to draw any conclusions, other than the fairly obvious, because of lack of information.
"We, down in the south, have to be cautious about jumping on bandwagons before more facts are known to us," Gastrow cautioned.
He said the blasts were well co-ordinated and seemed to have as their aim the generation of as much fear, anxiety and injury as possible.
Professor Mike Hough of the ISS at the University of Pretoria said last year's massive train bomb in Madrid was nearly immediately blamed on the Basque ETA separatist group. Later, it turned out to have been an Al-Qaeda attack.
600 incidents of terror
Hough said an Al-Qaeda attack in London had been expected for a long time as it had often been threatened.
As to who was to blame and what their motive was, "there was a range of possibilities".
Hough said there were 600 incidents of terror last year. That was a sharp rise on the average of about 200 a year before.
Another new aspect of international terror was sympathisers acting on their own. This was the case with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's branch of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Disrupting public life
"It is a hallmark of modern terrorism that no one takes responsibility for such acts, or only does so after an interval."
As such, he believed the attack was aimed at disrupting public life.
The shut-down of the city's tube and bus system as well as heightened security alerts throughout Europe afterwards would support this view.
Hough said he would not assume the attacks were meant to disrupt the G8 summit that started in Gleneagles in Scotland on Thursday.
If Al-Qaeda or fringe anti-globalisation activists wanted to do that they could have staged attacks closer to the venue.
- SAPA