Drought: No relief in sight

2003-12-12 17:40

Cape Town - The drought-like conditions occurring in some parts of South Africa were likely to continue, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) said on Friday during an assessment of the predicted current and long-range rainfalls.

The SAWS said the rainfall season started off very poorly, with most of the central and north-eastern parts of the country receiving less than 25% of the average rainfall for October, resulting in drought conditions persisting over these areas.

Some isolated areas of the Mpumalanga and Northwest provinces were lucky in receiving more than the normal amount of October rains.

"Of great concern is that the major part of the country received significantly less rain than normal in November. Some areas even received less than a quarter of their normal November rainfall. As a result, the drought conditions in general increased over many parts of the country," said SAWS.

The weather service said the outlook for the rest of year and the first week of January was "not promising" either, with little rain expected over Christmas.

"The weather outlook over the remainder of the country is of greater concern. The most probable scenario over the next few weeks remains for rainfall below the average. In fact, it is highly unlikely to receive rain over the eastern half of the Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces and the northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal," the service said.

Dam lvels dropping

It predicted only a 20% chance that significant widespread rainfall could occur over these regions during the next few weeks.

In addition to high forecast probabilities assigned to drought conditions persisting, hot conditions were also expected to persist during the period.

These forecast warmer-than-usual conditions would increase evaporation and could result in dam levels dropping faster than normal for this time of the year.

Taking into account that the levels of most dams in the country were already alarmingly low, the availability of adequate water for the country as a whole was under threat.

It may only be along the coastal regions where near the average to perhaps cool conditions have the highest probability of occurrence.

For the remainder of the summer season, summer rainfall regions are unlikely to receive high seasonal rainfall totals, especially along the far north-eastern regions where drought conditions are likely to persist into April 2004.

- SAPA