Mistrust main obstacle in Zim
2008-07-21 21:35
Harare - Deep mistrust between President Robert Mugabe and arch rival Morgan Tsvangirai will remain a major obstacle to rapid progress in ending Zimbabwe's crisis, despite an agreement to sit down and talk.
While there is a common sense of urgency for the two sides to bury their differences as Zimbabwe's economy lurches from bad to worse, observers say neither Mugabe nor opposition leader Tsvangirai is about to give up his claim to be the country's rightful leader.
And while South African President Thabo Mbeki may have pulled off something of a coup on Monday by persuading the pair to sign a memorandum of understanding on full-scale talks, Tsvangirai's pointed refusal to refer to Mugabe as president of anything more than Zanu-PF hardly boded well.
Main sticking point
According to Joseph Kurebga, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, the talks could proceed "very fast and to the satisfaction of all parties" - but only if and when the main sticking point is resolved.
"President Mugabe will want to be recognised legitimately, while Tsvangirai would also want to be recognised as the leader or winner of the elections."
While Mugabe may have given some ground then in agreeing to at least speak to Tsvangirai, Lovemore Madhuku, a pro-opposition analyst, says that should not be interpreted as a sign of the 84-year-old's weakening resolve.
"Mugabe still wants to be an executive leader of this country and he will remain the executive leader, there's no illusion on that," said Madhuku.
"The major issue is where to place Tsvangirai, and whether Tsvangirai will accept the position he will be offered or not."
If Mugabe has slightly softened his line, Tsvangirai has also had to temper some of his demands such as on the make-up of the mediation team.
Mugabe 'owes' Mbeki
Although Mbeki has now set up a new body which would allow input from the AU and UN, he remains the chief mediator - a point reinforced by his presence at Tuesday's signing.
Eldred Masunungure, a veteran Harare-based commentator, said Mugabe owed Mbeki - especially as he was instrumental in ensuring a bid to introduce a new package of sanctions failed at the UN Security Council earlier this month.
"The veto put them in a corner to support the negotiations," said Masunungure. "Now it's payback time."
Madhuku however said that Zanu-PF, which lost control of parliament in March for the first time since independence in 1980, was considerably weaker these days which would make it harder to mess Mbeki around.
"Failure (in previous mediation) was mainly the refusal of Zanu-PF to give in to any meaningful concession, so after the 29th March you should expect Mbeki... to be facing a weakened ZANU-PF," said Madhuku. "I think this will make Mbeki achieve a good deal."
"There is an element of desperation on the part of ZANU-PF," he said.