ANC losing urban black vote - analyst

2013-07-25 21:45
(Picture: AFP)

(Picture: AFP)

Multimedia   ·   User Galleries   ·   News in Pictures Send us your pictures  ·  Send us your stories

Cape Town - A poor showing by the ruling party at next year's general election will likely cost President Jacob Zuma his job, political analyst Nic Borain said on Thursday.

Speaking at a Cape Town Press Club lunch, he said the signs were that "the ANC's glue is coming unstuck" after the Marikana shootings last year.

"They [the ANC] are taking this 2014 election extremely seriously. They're going to fight tooth and nail to [win it].

"They know that if they drop below 60%, they're in trouble. Jacob Zuma will be in trouble... "

Responding to questions, Borain - a local independent analyst, who spoke on "the impact of the current mining troubles" in South Africa - suggested the rise of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) was a turning point for ANC supporters.

Support for it had been triggered by unhappiness with the ANC-aligned National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).

"There was a huge defection [from] the ANC support base in the platinum sector."

This had later spread to the gold sector, where it had risen - according to some sources - to 30%.

"Jacob Zuma is now losing support among urban black people," Borain said.

Prediction

Asked to predict the likely showing of the ANC at next year's elections, he said a "worst-case scenario" was the ANC retained 65% of the vote.

He suggested a more-likely "best scenario" would see the ANC get 59% of the vote. This, he said, would lead to ANC leaders negotiating a "controlled exit" for Zuma, who would want to be assured he could leave with his wealth intact and not facing corruption charges.

"The ANC is not going to accept this kind of loss."

Borain said a third scenario, involving the ANC garnering only 51% of the vote, was "very scary".

"If that happens, all bets are off."

Pushed to suggest how political parties might fare in the coming election, he estimated the ANC would take 58%, the DA 26%, a figure he later revised to 30%, and newly-formed Agang SA about 2%.

On the DA, Borain said the main opposition party would find it "difficult to overcome barriers to its growth".

On the future prospects of Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) - whose leadership he described as "the clowns and fools of our politics" - Borain said they could take up to 5% of the vote.

"But I can't see them getting out to vote," he added.

Read more on:    amcu  |  da  |  num  |  anc  |  eff  |  nic borain  |  jacob zuma  |  julius malema  |  cape town  |  politics  |  elections 2014

Join the conversation!

24.com encourages commentary submitted via MyNews24. Contributions of 200 words or more will be considered for publication.

We reserve editorial discretion to decide what will be published.
Read our comments policy for guidelines on contributions.
NEXT ON NEWS24X

24.com publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
163 comments
Comments have been closed for this article.

Inside News24

 
Partner Content
How data is changing investments

Technological disruption is rife in many spheres of business and given the quantity of data available, it’s no surprise that the way in which asset managers work is also changing fast.

Behind the sparkle

Alluring, beautiful and timeless - diamonds are some of the most sought after gems in the world and are a true testament of everlasting brilliance. Let us take you behind the sparkle to show you the history behind this coveted jewel.

/News
 

Play with your pet when you're not at home

Many pets are alone at home during the week while their owners are at work. So what do these animals get up to while they’re home alone?

 
 

Paws

How to get rid of fleas
12 Cool cat facts
Chocolate can be fatal for dogs
Spider-man star's adorable relationship with his dog
Traffic Alerts
There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.




Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.