ANC losing urban black vote - analyst

2013-07-25 21:45
(Picture: AFP)

(Picture: AFP)

Multimedia   ·   User Galleries   ·   News in Pictures Send us your pictures  ·  Send us your stories

Cape Town - A poor showing by the ruling party at next year's general election will likely cost President Jacob Zuma his job, political analyst Nic Borain said on Thursday.

Speaking at a Cape Town Press Club lunch, he said the signs were that "the ANC's glue is coming unstuck" after the Marikana shootings last year.

"They [the ANC] are taking this 2014 election extremely seriously. They're going to fight tooth and nail to [win it].

"They know that if they drop below 60%, they're in trouble. Jacob Zuma will be in trouble... "

Responding to questions, Borain - a local independent analyst, who spoke on "the impact of the current mining troubles" in South Africa - suggested the rise of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) was a turning point for ANC supporters.

Support for it had been triggered by unhappiness with the ANC-aligned National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).

"There was a huge defection [from] the ANC support base in the platinum sector."

This had later spread to the gold sector, where it had risen - according to some sources - to 30%.

"Jacob Zuma is now losing support among urban black people," Borain said.

Prediction

Asked to predict the likely showing of the ANC at next year's elections, he said a "worst-case scenario" was the ANC retained 65% of the vote.

He suggested a more-likely "best scenario" would see the ANC get 59% of the vote. This, he said, would lead to ANC leaders negotiating a "controlled exit" for Zuma, who would want to be assured he could leave with his wealth intact and not facing corruption charges.

"The ANC is not going to accept this kind of loss."

Borain said a third scenario, involving the ANC garnering only 51% of the vote, was "very scary".

"If that happens, all bets are off."

Pushed to suggest how political parties might fare in the coming election, he estimated the ANC would take 58%, the DA 26%, a figure he later revised to 30%, and newly-formed Agang SA about 2%.

On the DA, Borain said the main opposition party would find it "difficult to overcome barriers to its growth".

On the future prospects of Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) - whose leadership he described as "the clowns and fools of our politics" - Borain said they could take up to 5% of the vote.

"But I can't see them getting out to vote," he added.

- SAPA
Read more on:    amcu  |  da  |  num  |  anc  |  eff  |  nic borain  |  jacob zuma  |  julius malema  |  cape town  |  politics  |  elections 2014
NEXT ON NEWS24X
SHARE:

Read News24’s Comments Policy

24.com publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
180 comments
Add your comment
Comment 0 characters remaining
 

Inside News24

 
/Music

Jobs in Cape Town [change area]

Property [change area]

Travel - Look, Book, Go!

Magical Massinga

Spend 5 nights at the gorgeous Massinga Beach Lodge in Mozambique and only pay for 4 from R13 220 per person sharing. Includes return flights, accommodation, transfers and romantic turndown. Book now!

Kalahari.com - shop online today

Up to 40% off fashion accessories

Save up to 40% on selected handbags, purses, watches, jewellery and more. Offer valid while stocks last. Shop now!

Save up to R2000 on top electronics

Get every day mind bowing savings on top electronics. Offer valid while stocks last. Shop now!

As seen on TV - New book releases at only R199 each

Get mind blowing book savings on new titles. Offer valid while stocks last. Shop now!

Save up to 50% on Women’s month treats!

Celebrate the awesome women in your life with awesome treats like beauty products, fashion accessories, bestselling books, electronics and more. Offer valid while stocks last. Shop now!

Up to 60% off - clearance sale!

Save up to 60% on appliances, books, electronics, toys, movies and more. Offer valid while stocks last. Shop now!

OLX Free Classifieds [change area]

Samsung Galaxy s4

Mobile, Cell Phones in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 24

Best bargain in big bay

Real Estate, Houses - Apartments for Sale in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

VW Golf 6, 1.6 Trendline (Excellent condition)

Vehicles, Cars in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

Horoscopes
Aquarius
Aquarius

The quest for understanding has reached a new intense emotional level. The more tempestuous your emotions are, the bigger the...read more

There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.








Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.