Aids to kill 5m by 2011

2004-09-20 12:24

Johannesburg - HIV/Aids could be responsible for five million deaths by 2011 and this figure could rise to nine or 10m by 2021, according to new research released on Monday.

"On the basis of figures provided in the report, a conservative estimate points to more than five million Aids-related deaths by 2011.

"By 2021 this figure could be as high as nine to ten million," according to Prof Carel van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research at the University of South Africa.

Van Aardt's report "A projection of the South African population, 2001 to 2021" shows the total number of Aids-related deaths a year between 2007 to 2011 was expected to exceed 500 000 per year.

HIV/Aids will particularly impact the population growth levels of blacks and coloureds in the next seven years.

"Among the African population group there appears to be a greater than 50% growth in the number of deaths during the period 2001 to 2008, while the annual number of deaths among the coloured population is expected to grow by more than 80% during the period 2001 to 2014."

Van Aardt's analysis showed "a complex combination of HIV/Aids and population ageing" will influence deaths in the white population.

This, "together with economic factors such as higher levels of unemployment, a greater per capita incidence of poverty and a lower level of access to private health care facilities for whites will jointly give rise to a nearly 50% increase in the annual number of deaths during the period 2001 to 2009."

The Asian/Indian population would not be significantly affected by HIV/Aids. Instead an ageing population would lead to an annual increase in deaths from less than 9 000 in 2001 to slightly more than 12 700 by 2021.

South Africa's population is expected to reach 50.9m in 2021, growing from 45.4m in 2001.

Van Aardt found black people are expected to make up 79.9% of the total population in 2021, up from 77.7% in 2001.

Whites will decrease from 11.5% to 9.4% over the same period, while Asians/Indians at 2.4% and coloureds at 8.4% remain fairly constant.

All four population groups are expected to show high levels of ageing.

"The population of 66 years and older in the African population group is expected to grow by 81% over the projection period, that of the Asian population group by 120%, the coloured old-age population by 104% and the aged white population by 52%."

The growth rate of the black population would decline to about 0.42% by 2009.

"Thereafter it is expected to increase again as the number of HIV/Aids-related deaths among members of this population group tapers and declines."

The black, Asian and coloured populations were expected to grow, while the white population would shrink with a negative population growth of about 0.41% a year.

All population groups would show a decrease in the number of births each year.

- SAPA