All eyes on Mbeki
2008-02-07 12:35
Johannesburg - South African President Thabo Mbeki, an increasingly isolated figure since being ousted as ruling party leader, will try to reassert his authority at Friday's annual state of the nation address.
Mbeki has endured the two most torrid months of his career after first losing to his rival Jacob Zuma in an ANC leadership contest before being widely pilloried over a power crisis that has tarnished his reputation for competence.
The speech before lawmakers in Cape Town, which marks the traditional start of the parliamentary year, has been billed by commentators as an opportunity for Mbeki to prove to Zuma he is still in charge and not merely a lame duck.
Since Zuma took over from Mbeki as African National Congress president in December, his supporters have made a series of announcements on policy such as on the need to spend some of the government's budget surplus as well as to disband an elite crime-fighting unit known as the Scorpions.
Does what he wants
Steven Friedman, an analyst at the Pretoria-based Idasa thinktank, said Mbeki would likely disappoint anyone who expects him to start singing from Zuma's hymnsheet.
"I think it's going to be a straight-forward address where he will stick to his tradition as if nothing's ever happened and say what he wants to say, not what people want him to say," said Friedman.
"His characteristic as a politician is that he insists on addressing what is important to him and not what other people, including those who voted him into power, think ... He is saying: 'I do this my way. If you don't like it my way, tough'," Friedman added.
Since his defeat to Zuma, Mbeki has largely kept his head down and has been noticeably absent from keynote ANC events.
He has had to watch some of his closest allies voted off the ANC's major committees and his key lieutenants in the provinces are also feeling the heat.
Adam Habib, a professor in politics at the University of Johannesburg, said Mbeki had to be sensitive to the new power dynamic within the ANC even if he ultimately did not heed its entreaties.
"What he has to say and do is be responsive on the one hand to the ANC but also be firm," said Habib.
Mbeki's woes even elicited a rare show of sympathy from opposition leader Helen Zille who said earlier this week that "I think he is a lonely man", as she urged him to resist Zuma's demands.
With little more than a year before South Africa goes to the polls, Mbeki is unlikely to launch major new policy initiatives so most attention will be on his response to the power crisis which at one stage halted mining production.
"He will look very bad if he doesn't say anything substantial on electricity", said Friedman.