Lekota: what the analysts say
2008-10-08 14:12
Johannesburg - Here are some comments from analysts and economists on former defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota's remarks and the implications of any ANC split for
Africa's biggest economy.
Steven Friedman, political analyst, University of Johannesburg and Rhodes University
"What is actually happening, is that the ANC leadership is
trying to encourage Lekota and his colleagues to leave, and that
they've decided not to ... Lekota is flying kites."
"The ANC leadership's thinking is that if they can prevent a
major breakaway by people like Mbeki and senior leaders, then a
breakaway actually helps them. A party run by people like Lekota
is not going to really challenge the ANC at the polls.
"This is not about economic policy ... whether it happens or
not, in its current incarnation it's not going to have any
implications for policy.
"Anyone who breaks away from the ANC has to present himself
as a more authentic version of the ANC than the ANC itself. Part
of that is to go into it with really heavyweight figures. If you
don't, it gets seen as a splinter, which will not get more than
a couple of dozen seats in Parliament and then become just
another opposition party.
"I think the kind of breakaway possible under these
circumstances will not make a significant difference."
George Glynos, MD of Market Analysts ETM
"I think, if anything, you have had one party which has had
overwhelming power in recent years. I think this just deepens
our democracy.
"I think it is good that there are different political views
out there even within certain belief structures.
"It would have a limited impact (on markets) right now, they
are too occupied with what is happening abroad.
"People will only take it seriously if it works out that it
has a large support base."
Nic Borain, independent political analyst
"A breakaway party at this stage is unlikely to lead to a
significant leadership exodus from the ANC, or to garner
significant public support that genuinely threatens ANC
dominance.
"The ANC still has a monopoly on the traditions of the
heroes of the liberation struggle, and it will be very difficult
for a small group of leaders to be able to present themselves as
the genuine ANC, which is what they'd have to try and do.
"More importantly, I've got a feeling that after a clean-up
like this, the new leadership may be delighted with the
emergence of a small breakaway party. It might just remove some
of the discontent from the party, and take some internal
opposition and democracy out of the ANC.
"I do think in the long term a real opposition to the ANC
will emerge because the ANC houses such diverse ethnic, class
and other interests and has been unified around the struggle
against apartheid. But it's still too close to liberation for
the factions to go their different ways."
Shadrack Guto, director of Centre for African Renaissance Studies at University of South Africa
"If it's a party formed by leaders like Lekota, Mbazhima
Shilowa and other leaders with struggle credentials and those
who had been part of the mass democratic movement, it is going
to have a serious impact on the next elections.
"It is going definitely to eat into the ANC majority, eat
into other opposition parties. But the ANC will still be the
majority party, although the ANC will have a majority with a
reduced percentage."