Mbeki approval reaches new low

2007-10-22 15:29

Cape Town - President Thabo Mbeki's domestic approval rating in September fell to 40%, its lowest point in four years, TNS Research Surveys said on Monday.

The fall was evident across all race groups but slightly less so among blacks, the global market insight and information group said in a statement.

Large drops occurred in Bloemfontein, Johannesburg and Soweto, the West Rand and East London. East London was, however, still the most positive area. Only Pretoria did not show a decline in the approval rating.

For three years from 2000 the President's approval rating lay generally in the low 30s, but from February 2003 the percentage of people who believed he was doing a good job as President began to rise.

By the end of 2003, it was in the low 40s. The year 2004 saw a remarkable rise with the Ten Years of Democracy celebrations and the successful second democratic elections.

In 2005 the President's approval scored 61%, up three points from his 2004 average of 58%.

Consistent scores

In 2006, after the fourth consecutive fall (to 54% in February) from his high of 66% in April 2005, his approval rating staged a recovery back to 61% but had dropped to 54% by year end.

After maintaining this level up until June 2007, the September reading showed a dramatic drop to 40%, the lowest since April 2003, TNS said.

The scores for metropolitan black people were fairly consistent throughout 2005 but dropped notably in February 2006, recovering well in April. They ended 2006 at 69%. The score now at 53% was the lowest since 2003.

The scores among whites had been consistently in the mid 30s in recent years until the end of 2006 when they dropped to 26%.

They had been more volatile this year but the current score of 14% was the lowest since 2002.

The coloured sample had reached a new all-time low. The Indian/Asian sample showed higher volatility but was still well above its all-time low.

A consistent 10% to 12% of people gave a "don't know" response across the whole sample.

Dramatic drop

For the September reading, the "don't know" response rose to 17%, indicating a greater degree of uncertainty over how people felt about the President.

Analysis by area showed that, in September 2007, support for the President was highest in East London (56% - down dramatically from the 84% figure at the end of 2006) and lowest in Durban, Cape Town and the West Rand (28%), TNS said.

The study was conducted among a sample of 2 000 adults (1 260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

- SAPA