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Moeletsi Mbeki: ANC will lose power

2012-05-11 20:31

Stellenbosch - The African National Congress will not rule South Africa two or three decades from now, entrepreneur and analyst Moeletsi Mbeki said on Friday.

“South Africa, politically, is actually quite unstable,” he told Sapa, speaking after delivering an address at Stellenbosch University.

Asked if he thought the ANC would still be in power 20 to 30 years from now, Mbeki, the younger brother of former president Thabo Mbeki, responded: “No, I don’t think so.”

Asked which party he thought would replace the ANC, he said: “I think there are new political parties… [there are] awakenings happening in the country that I think will create [this alternative].”

Earlier, he told University of Stellenbosch students there was potential for the “emergence of a new political party, driven by organised labour and business”.

This, Mbeki said, would be a good thing for South Africa, but something the ruling party saw as a “major, major threat”.

The primary challenge facing the country was that half to three-quarters of the population were living in poverty.

Arab Spring equivalent

Asked what he thought the likelihood was of South Africa experiencing the equivalent of an Arab Spring - the revolutionary wave of protests and uprisings that swept across parts of the Arab world over a year ago - he replied: “Very high.”

The North African states where the revolts had taken place were middle-income countries like South Africa.

“The North African countries and South Africa are the only middle-income countries in Africa. It’s them that are faced with this problem.

“You have a relatively well-educated population that have high expectations, but the economic system is not delivering. Those are the countries that are susceptible to what happened in [that region]”.

On South Africa’s economic prospects for the next two to three decades, he said there were two ways the country could go.

“If we carry on along the path we are following, which is to divert more and more of our gross domestic product to private and state consumption, then the [local] economy is going to shrink and continue shrinking.

Can't have it both ways

“If, on the other hand, we change the policies, and move more like the Asians are doing towards investment… it’ll make a huge difference.”

But he warned that South Africa could not have it both ways.

“You can’t have these hugely highly-paid politicians and civil servants, who are consuming imports like 4x4s and those kinds of things, and, at the same time, develop investment for the economy.

"Politically, if you’re having a stagnant economy, you have the instability that we’re having in South Africa today.”

South Africa was politically stable, but there was no organised opposition among the poor, who made up the bulk of the ANC’s support base.

“It’s just that the poor people are operating on their own. But, sooner or later, they are going to be joined by others - like, for example, the ANC Youth League.

“You can see the ANCYL are now starting to join the poor. Then it becomes a new political equation.”

Poor put ANC in power

Delivering his address earlier - titled “The Social Structure of South Africa and its Impact on Economic Performance” - Mbeki criticised the party that he once, in the 1990s, served as a media consultant.

“If you look at the political elite in South Africa today, their main objective… is to maximise their own consumption, and the consumption of those who keep them in power.

“And the people who keep this group in power… are the poor. Seventy percent of the voters for the ANC do not work.”

He suggested the ANC had secured its electoral power base by massively increasing social grants, with the number of recipients rising from about two million in 1996 to 15.5 million today.

“The payback [for the ANC] for this is [the poor] voting for whoever gives them money.”

Mbeki, who holds an MA in Sociology, said many of his friends within the Congress of SA Trade Unions believed that the federation had put the ANC in power.

“It is not them that put the ANC in power; it’s the poor, who are not working, who put the ANC in power.”

Mbeki also warned about what he called capital flight out of South Africa.

“Since 1994, capital flight has been getting higher and higher and higher in South Africa.”

Lack of interest

In 2007 alone, South Africa had lost – according to a Wits University study - an estimated $20bn illegal capital exports.

“Since 1994, there has been a huge amount of capital flight; up to 20% of South Africa’s gross domestic product flies out of the country annually.”

Mbeki said the ANC had demonstrated a “lack of interest” in attracting investment.

“However, organised labour realises the consequence [of this]. Already we are beginning to see this alliance playing itself up.

“The National Union of Metalworkers of SA has formed a partnership with what is called the manufacturing circle, which are the manufacturing industrialists.

“They have formed a partnership to stop the de-industrialisation of the country. So this process is already working itself out."

Mbeki said South Africa’s “political elite” felt threatened by business capitalists, civil society and organised labour.

“And there is a reform that is being put in place by the people who control the state, which is to tackle the issue of the independence of all these groups.”

This was being done by “trying to undermine the independence of the media and by trying to control the judiciary.

“The independence of the judiciary is being threatened because this group feels very, very threatened by what is emerging in the country.

“The media is under threat. The state has long [ago] taken control of the SABC, which is supposed to be an independent public broadcaster, but which is actually run as a branch of the ANC,” Mbeki said.

Comments
  • Squeegee - 2012-05-11 20:36

    Sensible guy. He can see the writing on the wall.

      Thandiwe - 2012-05-11 20:41

      Mbeki would make a great leader..

      dave.elmore.5 - 2012-05-11 20:42

      And it's not even in fine print either! Pretty scary stuff

      Thandiwe - 2012-05-11 20:49

      I think the ANC will quietly crumble. Already I think that they will lose 10% next election..

      Thandiwe - 2012-05-11 21:06

      @siyadyosiba - I don't think the DA would be as scary as you think - they are free market centrists and the whites in it are not like the NNP whites. In fact I have noticed a lot of black support growing for them.

      Luvo - 2012-05-11 21:07

      Never a truer word been spoken. Summarising the ANC of today one observes people who fight to climb to the top positions of the organisation but once they are there they get involved in leadership squabbles but actually do nothing for the people who voted them in. I truly pity those who wholeheartedly believe that any good will come out of these modern-day ANC politicians.

      Thandiwe - 2012-05-11 21:07

      And they also seem more racially diverse than any other party..

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 21:11

      @Thandiwe, yes there is a significant amount of black people going for DA and I understand why. People are poor and tired of empty promises. I personally do not trust the current DA leadership especially Hellen hence the scary thought.

      David - 2012-05-11 21:32

      @siyadyosiba - the DA's not perfect, but they are a hell of a lot better than the current ANC who actually have a clue on how to take this country forward. The leadership of the DA may be very white, but that is changing. Keep an eye out for guys like Mmusi Maimane. The DA is keeping the ANC on their toes, something we very much need

      Msika - 2012-05-11 22:14

      @Thandi, give the DA too much power(say 2 third majority of the votes) like we did with the anc and see if they would still be the saints you percieve them to be. Its in our nature as poeple that , if given too much power, we start to abuse that power. I wish the DA could get more votes (say 40% or even 55%) then we'll see change in this country. 'Competion always benefit the consumer', consumer being us in this case.

      lownabester - 2012-05-11 22:23

      Amen, Moeletsi, You are so right, The lonely voice, But we all support you.

      Glyn - 2012-05-11 22:37

      Next election... anc - down by 10% - 15% DA - up 10% - 12% Cope - up 1% - 2% Independent left wing - up 2% Independent right wing - up 1% Vote DA to give the anc a heck of a shock in the next elections!

      Glyn - 2012-05-11 22:42

      @Thandiwe - I think that you are right. What is scary about the DA? Nothing unless you support the anc! @Siyadyosiba - Stop sitting on a fence. What is scary about the DA? It is 65%+ black right now.

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 22:56

      @Glyn, I'm not sitting on the fence, that's an insult dude. I'm ANC and will remain ANC.

      Thandiwe - 2012-05-11 23:23

      @Siyadyosiba - your support for the ANC seems to be wavering judging by your quite fair criticism of them.. I want to employ apprentices in my company but the anti-employment policies of the ANC are a stumbling block. If COSATU did not block the youth wage subsidy (a policy supported by DA), I could afford to take on one, possibly two engineers on a two year apprenticeship. This would boost our productivity and therefore profit (provided demand is the same) and I would probably then be able to take them on after their apprenticeship. In the unlikely event I would be unable to, they would have gained invaluable skills making them employable.. Don't vote for a party that strangles jobs!

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:25

      Thandiwe, here is a big hug for you. Wise words are always welcome.

      Denise - 2012-05-12 17:13

      Sir, you are very smart, and should be in leadership. However, democracy does not favour the intelligent.

      jomardl - 2012-05-12 19:35

      Unfortunately, sensible guys rarely go into politics.

      Vince.York - 2012-05-12 20:55

      What date was it again that this zuma held Julius' the paranoid schizo's hand up high stating that he Malema was THE BEST LEADER FOR THE FUTURE? and you think any of his team are any different TODAY? Have you all lost your minds entirely?

      Pierre - 2012-05-13 07:54

      Why do some so eagerly await the downfall of the ANC? Under the ANC a lot of good are done. They are not in any stretch of the imagination the dictatorships that the Arab spring refers too. Why compare SA with the Arabian countries? In decades to come new political parties will surely emerge and one of those might take over; and sure change might be good as power does corrupt on the long term; but be careful for what you whish for. The ANC has a strong devotion to a market driven economy (that is thriving) and to reconciliation; new governments might be a lot more ideologically driven. I personally think a lot of the hatred towards the ANC is driven from ideologies cemented in people’s minds during the Apartheid years.

      Pierre - 2012-05-13 08:05

      If there is a change I hope its not the DA as I will never forgive the DA for continuously creating an image of a failed South Africa and feeding on the Apartheid’s era fears (propaganda) that SA would become “another failed 3de world dictatorship”. South Africa is not a failed state and it is today much stronger than it was at any time during Apartheid. The DA has never acknowledged that; they have put South Africa down for 18 years, only for their own lust for power.

      Merven - 2012-05-14 08:26

      '“I think there are new political parties… [there are] awakenings happening in the country that I think will create [this alternative].”' I just hope that he don't have Malema in mind...

      Denny - 2012-05-14 09:37

      @Msika - You have it exactly right. Blind loyalty to any party is ultimately foolish and destructive.

      GrootWitHaai - 2012-05-14 11:31

      The day the ANC loses power is the day South Africa becomes the most sought after country to live and invest in. Our currency will match the greenback in a matter of days.

  • Reginald - 2012-05-11 20:49

    Of course they won't rule forever. Sooner or later even the most dim witted voters will realise that the ANC rulers who aren't actually raiding the state coffers on a daily basis are so shockingly incompetent that they are actually costing the country more than the ones who do the stealing.

      Don.Tandy - 2012-05-11 21:49

      @Tsotsi - Reginald doesn't need to call you dim-witted, you say it all yourself. Economic Freedom - can you give me a plausible explanation as to what this means - so far no-one has been able to, which tells me no-one knows, least of all the morons who keep saying they want it.

      Reginald - 2012-05-11 23:07

      I am calling anyone who votes for the ANC dim witted. These so called leaders are pulling the wool over your eyes. They know you will vote for them no matter what (and so they continue their plundering at will) because the evil DA sure as hell cannot be voted for. Just think of all the terrible things that would happen if the DA should come into power. Things like municipalities that actually function, budgets that balance, money not stolen before it can be used for its purpose, hospitals that run smoothly, criminals that stay where they belong ie behind bars etc etc ad nauseum. Just look at the Western Cape. What a mess they are in!

      Ronald - 2012-05-12 00:25

      Reginald, interestingly Tsotsi connected dimwitted with race, not you

      Sheik - 2012-05-12 14:52

      Tsotsi-Baby anyone who sells his or her vote for a T-shirt or a food parcel is not the sharpest of voters. In that case Dim witted is fitting of that type of person.

      henk63 - 2012-05-13 07:50

      @Michael - Whites fully understand that the world condemned them when they subjected blacks to their rule. They saw the signs and changed their attitude, to their own detriment. Whites knew the country would be isloated more and more if they did not give in to international pressure. Why would they risk all that again? You are really scraping the barrel when you just assume they want apartheid back. It is people like you who give the ANC the backing to carry on like they do.

      MichaelThekiso - 2012-05-13 08:16

      @Henk, I get what you are saying. You couldn't have been more wrong though. There are no guarantees that the DA will not do what the NP and parties before it did. You are also assuming wrongly that I am voting the ANC. If by not voting the DA I am giving the ANC backing to do whatever they are doing, so be it! That is the risk I will take. I still insist that a new party is needed, one with only one agenda: TO MOVE THE COUNTRY FORWARD!!!

      avandehaar - 2012-05-13 08:53

      @MichaelTekiso It was not the DA party that subjugated the blacks under apartheid rule. the DA is the new party you are looking for as can be seen by the current and future leaders of the DA. You can see that the future leaders of the DA will not be white as is very evident to this day. But as I too often see everything is about race. I will vote for the party that does its job correctly. And that is the DA, It is not opinion it is fact. And even if the DA gets a black leader, who cares as long as they keep doing what they are doing I will continue voting for them!:)

      Sean - 2012-05-14 08:20

      @ racist tsotsi [ugly] baby. Explain to us mere mortals exactly why you voted for the anc? Explain how they have uplifted your life? explain how they have made sa a better place? Your problem is that you deny, deny, deny then blame blame and blame and when that fails you always always play the race card. Get over yourself, the anc are a usless, corrupt, racist, nepatinistic, tokenism party. THEY ARE NO GOOD FOR SA. But likle all good sheep, you blindly follow them into the abyss of self destruction

      Merven - 2012-05-14 08:38

      'Blacks are well aware that when the white parties took over, the first thing they did was to dehumanise black citizens of this country.' So what you're actually saying is, the 'new party' must be pitch black, so basically another ANC clone with an entitlement mindset.

  • Cornelius - 2012-05-11 20:49

    During the time of his brother as Prez, he was concentrating on bad leadership in Zimbabwe. Since the brother was shown the door he quickly turned the gun. He is now shooting local. Its a case of sour grapes. The greatest scandals by ANC were engineered during the time of Thabo, for example arms deal fiasco. Zuma's government hasn't done anything close to that.

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 20:54

      Denialism is the worst enemy one can have.

      Luvo - 2012-05-11 21:11

      @Cornelius - ...and you truly believe that Zuma's government is doing any better that what the Mbeki-led government did??

      Cornelius - 2012-05-11 21:18

      @ Luvo, Yes according to economic fundamental measurements the Zuma leadership is doing well than Mbeki. You can look for the economic statistics they can give you a better picture. The tender corruption we hear from the media it was there even during the time of Madiba but people they just ignore to further their agendas

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 21:28

      @Cornelias, wake up please. Zuma is now destroying what has been built by Mbeki, check what the widespread protests are doing to our infastructure. protecting criminals, doing unlawful appointments, buiding his empire using tax payers money, now destroying the ANC from the core, for the first time we see ANCYL revolting against the motherbody. Please dude.

      DraganTrenk - 2012-05-11 21:36

      Cornelius-You can talk crap.Are you shameless or plain STUPID?

      Cornelius - 2012-05-11 21:46

      @ Siyadyobisa, I think u are being selective in your analysis because protests have always been there even during the time of Mbeki. As for ANCYL, I think there was no way Zuma was going to remain quiet when Malema was undermining his authority. Think of his Botswana comment, his comment in Zimbabwe of supporting Mugabe and calling the Prez are dictator. Malema thought he was the kingmaker in ANC and Zuma had to show him that he was fooling himself. Any leader could have taken similar decision

      Cornelius - 2012-05-11 21:55

      @Dragan, Am sure u think u are the only one with an opinion. Am sure u hate Zuma with passion becoz he heads the ANC. To me he is a good leader. But I am not saying he doesn't have weaknesses

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 22:06

      @Cornelias, you are the one selective with the truth. Malema was lifted up by the same Zuma and allowed to insult elders ie mbeki, pandor, manuel etc right under his nose. Zuma conveniently kept quiet because he lacks leadership and integrity. He only took on Malema when Malema was coming closer to him with his ill discipline. During Mbeki's time no ANCYL member could say anything insulting to any ANC elders hence now the uproar from Veterans against Malema and his group. ANC is built with a foundation principle of always upholding respect, avoidance selfishness and discussion of ANC matters within the structures of the party. Zuma has killed that foundation hence today any one can say whatever to any one, something that was strange during Madiba and Mbeki tenure. Do you hear any old ANC members talking much now? No. Why? They are scared because ANC has been made a party that destroys whoever differs with the views of Zuma. ANC is going down the drain with a smile in its face because of the current leadership.

      Chaapo - 2012-05-11 23:38

      He has been critical of the government even during his brother's time. In fact he has always been very candid and consistent on how he sees the issues of govenance and the economy. If you do not read wide then the fault is yours for being ignorant. For your info this one from 2005 is one of many: A growing gap between the black elite and the black masses?: Elites and political and economic change in South Africa since the Anglo Boer War Educate yourself before criticising in the absence of facts.

      johncarlos.biza - 2012-05-12 12:27

      Lie. I was at the talk and he mentioned doing research in SA politics for many years. He has also said many a time he disagrees with his brother's views and methods

      Honest - 2012-05-13 10:28

      The Young Mbeki brother was the greatest critic of his elder brother , Thabo , please do some reading and you will agree with me on this.

      Jeffrey - 2012-05-13 21:50

      @Cornelius, You are wrong! I remember Moeletsi on the radio criticising his brother's stance on AIDS and on Thabo's support for Mugabe. He was very critical.

  • Sewela Marcia Rapudubudu - 2012-05-11 20:52

    I agree with you mr mbeki, very soon ANC will be history

      Cornelius - 2012-05-11 21:02

      ANC won't lose power any time soon. There is no alternative. The so called labour and business movements are the core of the party. When CoPE was formed people made the same noise but the same people are now quiet. What defeats the liberation movement is the economy and dictatorship like in Zimbabwe. ANC is not implementing populist economic policies and their type of leadership is democratic. I can't think of any better leadership

      netshiendeulu.tshivhidzo - 2012-05-11 21:07

      marcia stop dreamin just like mr mbeki

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-11 22:24

      The ANC is not all bad and it will stay in power until a better party presents itself...and that would be in the next 1-2 decades!!!

      Xulu.Thulany.Xaba - 2012-05-12 01:05

      Wana bet?

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 12:09

      @Xulu, betting wont help, id rather campaign on it :p

      sandy.langenstrass - 2012-05-12 15:18

      It takes a brave man to publicly share this...knowing he'll be not liked for it.....but things are that bad...he needed to say this and get it off his chest.

      Sewela Marcia Rapudubudu - 2012-05-12 16:05

      The only thing left in ANC is corruption,there is no more dignity in african national congress party we all know that.

  • netshiendeulu.tshivhidzo - 2012-05-11 20:57

    i doubt

      Tsotsi-Baby - 2012-05-11 22:10

      You should.........

  • Adil Smit - 2012-05-11 20:57

    Is he suggesting a Cosatu political party?

  • kuvha.tshilamatanda - 2012-05-11 21:01

    ANC of today has got nothing to do with better life for people,everyone in that party is making sure he is rich.it is about self enrichment,now they are busy with renaming the streets,I wonder if those streets will vote for them in the next coming elections.voters are ignored,left in the cold of unemployments while combrades becomes millionaire overnight,this ANC is going to hell,people will burn down those yellew tshirts next time,they won't be fooled forever,people are angry and someone doesn't see that!

  • cirrus11 - 2012-05-11 21:02

    Not to mention the fact that there is a growing sens among Afikaners for Self-determination as the only way to ensure their own future. This could be the catalyst to a new South Africa. Just like Florence was the trigger for the Renaissance in Europe.

      Jeffrey - 2012-05-13 21:53

      Florence who?

  • Ndumiso - 2012-05-11 21:04

    Only if the current leadership hasnt changed since it is full of economic oligarchies who claim to represent the poor whilst they not.

      Jenny - 2012-05-12 18:49

      The top people in government are out of touch with the poor and with ordinary people who are struggling to make ends meet, even if they are lucky enough to have a job. And if they do hear the rumblings of public discontent, they prefer to live in denial - all they want is money and the good life.

  • themba.ntuli - 2012-05-11 21:05

    i think the whole world is unstable not just south africa or middle income states its the power and strenght of constitutions that are the difference as you can see how pre-arab spring goverments in the arab world where above the law and can easily get away with fraud and criminal activities to me this is what will truely test the ruling party whether it will respect the constitution when voted out or not, great nations are built on great constitutions as you remember what the american congress did after the declaration of independace was to draft a highy liberal and solid constitution thats why that nation is great and we too can be great if our leaders respect what the constitution says.

      keith.recore - 2012-05-11 23:27

      very good observation themba

      Nigel - 2012-05-12 11:40

      @themba, we are also in for hard times, Europe is in trouble, China is slowing down fast, the recession still has a long way to go & we in SA are already starting to feel the effects of this, last weeks manufacturing results show it. So things are only going to get harder, & the ruling party will not be able to cope with the worsening challenges, like unemployment, poverty, crime, education etc, because the are nowhere near coping now. The days of waiting for the government to give you a job are over, Cosatu, which is part of the ruling party is putting politics before job creation & this together with the clueless govt, is going to really destroy any hope of economic recovery, this will happen, unless we can do something miraculous & change our attitudes. We need to sort out our government, to sort our out productivity & labour legislation, we need to start working together to create jobs, racism & petty politics & trying to undermine the opposition is the no 1 priority at the moment, the people of SA are not important, this needs to change & fast.

      themba.ntuli - 2012-05-12 14:32

      Thanx @keith, and i like and aware of your analysis @nigel. i think modern civilisation will be destroyed by the growing inequality across the world. the world's economy since the industrial revolution has largely been driven by technological inovation and this has allowed the world's population to swell from 1 billion to 6 billion and 10 billion is projected for 2050, the big question is whether everyone will get a piece of the pie under such projections things look uncertain for everyone on earth unless technology saves humanity again as it did when it brought billions from a peasant lifestyle to a modern one we see and live today.

  • Tumisang - 2012-05-11 21:05

    The ANC has done something that will keep them forever in power like Mugabe, they gave social grants which currently sustain the life of the poor rural areas and equivalent of 52% votes.the only hope to remove the ANC is by an uprising in the urban areas.

      Nigel - 2012-05-12 11:42

      We need to educate the people in the urban areas, that is what will change this mess.

  • Msika - 2012-05-11 21:05

    \Keep them uneducted and poor, and they will vote for you\ seems to be the ANC's slogan. I dont see those poor poeple voting for somebody else other than the ANC, they actualy believe that the ANC is paying for their grants and not the tax payers. The challenge of the opposion now is to change the poor poeple's mindsets, which is a huge task.

      Phelamanga - 2012-05-12 18:43

      You are quite right. The ANC cannot afford to have a growing middle class, especially with the NDR ideology they speak about but don't practise. In fact, the NDR will entrench poverty for the majority of people, and will protect the small, corrupt, decadent and wealthy minority elite of the ANC. The pattern is already there, and it seems that there is a scramble now to get into the right positions before the imposition of the NDR on the country. Thabo Mbeki knew he had to keep COSATU and the SACP in particular away from the centres of power in the ANC as he knew their insistence on the NDR. That is why these two organisation, along with the ANCYL campaigned and pushed for Zuma, and got rid of Mbeki. They needed to win the heart and soul of the ANC so that they could implement the communist ideology of the NDR. The attacks on the judiciary, the grants, the attacks on the media and so on are all part of the "revolution". It's textbook Marxism. The only people who will benefit are the minority elites of the ruling party. That's that way it was in all the communist countries.

  • WhiteNut - 2012-05-11 21:06

    From about 100 members in 1912, 250 in 1944 ...OVER a million in 2012! Whoever can not read and interpret these figures...the ANC is growing in leaps and bounds Mr Mbeki..where have you been? get out of ur comfy and do something tangible for ur country

      Cornelius - 2012-05-11 21:10

      That's a good factual analysis. These statistics speaks louder than some opinions from these analysts

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 21:33

      now check the stats on national vote of ANC in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009. isn't there a decline? If yes, what does that say? Check the momentum DA is accumulating from the black communities, you should swallow your ignorance and be worried. Open yours eyes bafethu. Denialism isn't gonna help at all.

      Jean - 2012-05-12 03:00

      Oh ja Ivan anc is great for the white minority. I mean 250 white farmers killed thus far this year alone but of course you will probably defend these actions by saying apartheid gov did the same, well guess what you are now officially the same if not worse than the apartheid gov, your initiation will follow soon.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 04:37

      I apologize for any offence my statement might have caused but is because of people like Mr. Piet that I felt I had to say that.

      Hadebe - 2012-05-12 07:09

      No need to apologise ivan, why must we always be the ones` who does the apologising? anc is doing far more good for these racists.

      Piet - 2012-05-12 08:01

      Ivan, I just confirmed what the above statistics reflect......

      Archie - 2012-05-12 09:46

      ANC 1 000 000 members and declining Cosatu 4 000 000 members and declining Communist party ? members ANC youth league ? members When cosatu decides not to vote ANC the party will collapse. Communist party currently manages the gov,(most ministers are communists)so we know where the commies will vote,but the rest? We are all south africans so think and vote wisely.

      Themba - 2012-05-12 11:39

      And how do you explain the loss in votes since 1994? The ANC won about 74% (if memory serves) in 1994, but a lousy 62 in the last elections. Its membership growth, if any, seems to be balanced by the growth in opposition voter turnout

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:32

      Whitenut, don't let figures fool you any longer. If there were a decent black alternative to the ANC, it would not be the biggest party today.

      david.baker.sa - 2012-05-14 08:39

      100 in 1912 to 1,000,000 in 2012 is less than 9.8% growth pa on average OK that is not a serious point except to prove how dumb stats can be. Another stat In 1989 the MP had over 1,000,000 voters. The CP (further right had just under 700k) By 1999 both were decimated. Voters get the hell in with their parties. It happens. Mbeki is making a very long term prediction 20, 30 years. The ANC brought liberation and tha will buy them loyalty for a long time but not forever. What can still happen (please note I said CAN) is the equivalent of an Arab Spring where the people get the hell in & the government clamps down over-harshly. History tells us that the people will win eventually and eject the government

      david.baker.sa - 2012-05-14 08:52

      I should note that the NNP still got around 1,000,000 voters in 1999 but the 700k CP voters eithe rdidnt vote or voted for the NNP. Plus many coloured people voted for the NNP. They were clearly dead. In 2004 they aligned with the DP to form the DA. In 2005 they left the DA to join the ANC. Accomodating them was a mistake made by both the DP and the ANC. It helped neither party in the long run but scored temporary political points.

  • madise.paul - 2012-05-11 21:14

    The anc is so tasteless to many of us, i don't see maself voting for it!! im so outta words.

  • Carl - 2012-05-11 21:16

    Gee, I like this Guy! Sir, you have summed it all up on one piece of paper. Uncomplicated, sensible and clear as day.I respect you.

  • lungile.ndyibithi - 2012-05-11 21:18

    I am already uncertain about myself voting for the anc in the coming elections unless Mangaung comes out otherwise. Anc need to realise that we need a different leader, not what they currently have in store. All of these guys knows nothing bt only to be fancy and extravagant.

      sandy.langenstrass - 2012-05-12 15:00

      lungile....we need a leader that is not militant minded (like our present freedom fighters that run our land)...we need a government that is strong in economic powers...that know how to improve this countries growth(some will say, but our growth is good)...then why do we have the kinds of levels of poverty that we suffer...which drives our crime. If our economy was flurishing poverty would drop...hence crime would follow with a decline as well.

  • keith.ngobeni - 2012-05-11 21:20

    Well said Mbeki, using unprivileged people is one of ANC strongest weapon at the moment, that's why they (ANC) will never allowed their masses grants earning supporters to get education, because as soon as they get educated they (masses grant earners) will start to see things in a different way and that will be a big problem for the ANC.

      sandy.langenstrass - 2012-05-12 15:02

      Clever man!!!!

      Phuti - 2012-05-12 19:24

      Y don't DA apply the very simple strategy as ANC?its not easy,I love the fact tht Mbeki is mentioning DA as the alternate to ANC like most on ths forum.we need a party for the people with no racial connotations.

  • Thabo - 2012-05-11 21:22

    In 2025 if not 2019, coalition will be in charge. Just wonder if the amount of damage caused at that time will be irreversible.

      Sterling - 2012-05-12 09:25

      If SA doesn't get all of these people on social grants off the roll this country is going the same way as Argentina under Peron and Greece today. This country will not be able to sustain the cost to keep these programs in SA. Along with the grants, many people will be collecting government pensions and it will cost the government a lot of money to pay for them. Moelesti has got it right but, most of the people in the ANC are not going to listen to him. COSATU knows that the SA government will be faced with an economic crisis that they will not be able to deal with when the money runs out. This is why COSATU is becoming so vocal about the economy because the economy of SA is not growing fast enough to sustain all of these programs. To make matters worst, there is a flight of capital out of SA and very few investments.

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:36

      Sterling, so true, The days that they can't afford to hand out money left, right, and centre are fast approaching. Let's see who will vote for them then,

  • Thabo - 2012-05-11 21:30

    This will make ANC to realise that people are starting to expect accountability from the ruling party. The can only improve and they have shown that recently. There is depth in the ANC

      Stlouis Heidtmann - 2012-05-11 21:39

      theres no depth in anc only corruption and yes civil war is on the way or atleast some big clashes anc helping in it on with bad leadership and and blaming whites and apartheid for all their mistakes anc more racist than awb thats how bad it is

      Thabo - 2012-05-11 21:49

      This will make them boil. When did they show accountability ? After a National outcry ? That's not right.

      Muffin_man_can - 2012-05-11 21:51

      Yes about 1 cm deep..

      collenlvovo.maunye - 2012-05-11 21:56

      He is bitter.

      Brett - 2012-05-12 00:51

      Yeah like the depth of a long drop.

      Themba - 2012-05-12 11:49

      Depth? Yeah right! That is why the President has to have his speeches written for him because he never went to school. That is why the leader of the ANCYL failed woodwork

      eddie.sibiya - 2012-05-12 23:35

      My honourable Moeletsi is one of the people \r\nWho benefited from the ANC, surely this is how he thanks our organisation, not long ago he

  • thozi - 2012-05-11 21:36

    I hope there was misprint - it should have been in 20 to 30 months. Is 20 to 30 weeks over stretching it?

  • zolisa.dlokovu - 2012-05-11 21:37

    I agree with Moeletsi Mbeki,one of independent thinkers in South Africa.The ANC will not rule forever.They will not rule for more than three decades.Even ordinary people can see that the ANC is failing them but the majority of black who vote for the ANC are people who belong to that generation of Mandela.The next generation will not support a party based on liberation politics.They wont support a party because it liberated them.This country was not liberated by ANC only but it was a collective effort.

      cleopas.maunye - 2012-05-11 21:52

      I don't c them going beyond 2019 unless they change their attitude towards service delivery and governance

  • lemepe - 2012-05-11 21:44

    Give that man a Bells!

      ngwatlevin - 2012-05-11 21:58

      Lov or hate hm tel t lyk t s

  • Stlouis Heidtmann - 2012-05-11 21:44

    thapsta=idiot

  • Catherine - 2012-05-11 21:49

    Strong words from a reputable thinker. I don't know if the ANC will take him seriously, though. They're too busy fiddling - or, for that matter, coveting their gold - while Rome burns.

  • musa.gatsheni - 2012-05-11 21:49

    ANC undermines da power dt da poor possess one day they will wake up all da votes dt da poor give dm wl b gone#true story#\r\n\r\nds corruption dt they r dng hs gt onto our nerves

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:39

      Musa.gatsheni, please spend your time self-educating yourself, This is plain gibberish you write. Is this what they teach you at school?. For your sake, I hope not.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 14:20

      It takes gibberish to see gibberish you judgemental hack :p

  • siphosgubu - 2012-05-11 21:54

    I fully agree with Moeletsi Mbeki, ANC is falling apart. But mark my words\VAVI\ and his COSATU are capable of drowning ANC.

      Mathapelo - 2012-05-12 07:02

      They have my full support

  • Lazarus - 2012-05-11 21:57

    We just need to gang up against the ANC during election.Let us vote the DA.Full stop.

  • ntshembolloyd.shibambu - 2012-05-11 22:01

    solution pple,the middle class(us) of this country we dnt involve our selfs.lets do smething b4 its too late.to be honest i thank news24 for opening my eyes i was very blynd,i thot anc is the only party but 4rom 3 years back i'm wizer bcause of news24.

      WhiteNut - 2012-05-11 22:57

      Lol! Are you sure you are wise? Let's see..

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-11 23:58

      conformist :p

      Marion - 2012-05-12 16:33

      @ntshembolloyd - one's eyes are opened by News24, particularly the comments section! Many people do not realize that not everyone gets to watch tv news, debate politics, etc., Make sure you vote wisely and not just with your heart next election!

  • Thapelo - 2012-05-11 22:06

    blacks lets sell urs souls to the devil lets vote da.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-11 22:38

      lol...no, better the devil we know(ANC) than the she-devil who has the potential to be as corrupt as the ANC.

      Gladstone - 2012-05-11 23:28

      @Thapelo, in your f_ken dreams. Are we that crazy? If these Madonselas, Mbekis and Mampela can launch something.

      maseratifittipaldi - 2012-05-12 00:33

      M & M 's to the rescue.

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:42

      Ivan, let's face it you hate Helen Zille for only one reason. She is white. Well so am I and like her I have earned my credentials obtaining freedom for the likes of you to be able to spew your gibberish. Get a life.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 14:30

      F.Y.I I do have a life...mind yours before you childishly interfere in mine Miss. I have white friends a lot for that matter so its not a racial matter but more on the mindset that she has, so I should get a life...u get a proper opinion Jac. :)

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 14:51

      Ohhh by the way hate is for the weak and it generally hinders progression and change. So hating Zile would be utterly useless and I have better things to do with my time, like ensuring that I have a future. Im quite amazed how you and some other white people think you know me so well. Its such all knowing mentalities that I detest.

  • Mokhoaetsi - 2012-05-11 22:11

    mxxxm because ur brada is not in change now, when i u people going to realise what zuma said is a fact ANC will rule until jesus come

      siyadyosiba - 2012-05-11 22:20

      HAHAHAHA ever heard of flying pigs? Zuma in that statement was actually saying pigs are gonna fly. HAHAHAHAHA

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-11 22:43

      I believe the ANC will rule for a long time...not Zuma. The leadership is the reason for the current calamities.

      phonis9 - 2012-05-12 12:17

      @ mokahetzi u know u are talking da S@%$*T

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:45

      Well while he can scare silly people with their ancestors, he may be around longer than we think. I still hear him tell voters to vote ANC because if they didn't their ancestors would be angry and funny things would happen then. Yep, that is the President of a country that want to be taken seriously by the rest of the world. Blimey.

      robqb - 2012-05-13 12:13

      In that case Jesus must have recently been born, ie has come again!

  • themba.riba - 2012-05-11 22:19

    it's not that the poor uneducated black masses who vote the ANC into power are that stupid or can't see that the ANC is corrupt

      Sterling - 2012-05-12 09:29

      These people aren't stupid they are sitting home and getting family grants that are not susatinable.

  • WhiteNut - 2012-05-11 22:25

    by projections, statistically or otherwise the DA will never ever rule SA. I know its frustrating to some, but its a reality. Instead the ANC has become more popular post 94 nd not ending. ANC is global brand, synonymous to a god. It means a lot of different things to a whole lot of different pple. They can still go on another 100yrs given the unprecedented growth in both membership and elections. Sorry haters, keep voting your small insignificant nd RACIST parties

      Riaan - 2012-05-11 22:42

      Mwhahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha Great joke. I want what you're smoking. How do you explain their declining support year on year if the are becoming more popular? Global brand of another failed african party and synonymous with criminality and corruption, yes. And nice try, troll.

      Msika - 2012-05-11 22:46

      You such a White Nutcase!!

      WhiteNut - 2012-05-11 23:04

      That's why I do not associate with DA's idiots like you...

      phosa.peter2 - 2012-05-11 23:06

      I don't see ANC securing 2/3 majorty on the next polls,,after mangaung conferece we are going to see the 'depth of the cracks it has within' so as to determine the displacement of the governing body for this country..not long, i suppose.

      themba.riba - 2012-05-11 23:19

      @phosa.peter2. uyisiphukuphuku esiphindiwe. noma unga votela abaqindezeli asishodi ngevoti lakho elimbashile gundane ndini.

      themba.riba - 2012-05-11 23:23

      @phosa.peter2. uyisiphukuphuku esiphindiwe. noma unga votela abaqindezeli asishodi ngevoti lakho elimbashile gundane ndini.

      Themba - 2012-05-12 11:54

      phosa the anc kissed their 2/3 goodbye two elections ago already

      Wayne - 2012-05-12 12:54

      @WhiteNut - while i think you are right in saying that DA will never rule, i think you are also missing the point entirely. DA isnt necessarily the panacea or the silver bullet that SA needs. What SA needs is rational thinking people across the political spectrum, who consider the realities of the country OUTSIDE OF RACIAL OR PARTISAN LINES! That might very well mean that some parties might amalgamate, others might morph or develope there policies to suit the realities of the country.

      Jacqui - 2012-05-12 13:51

      Whitenut, in another hundred years they would have extended the Kalahari desert from where it is now to Cape Point. Given the unprecedented growth of births in this country who will be feeding them in the future?. Your ANC God, has feet of clay, so keep worshipping it, while it last. Just remember when you don't have food, those you speak so highly of now, will all be residing near Lake Geneva in Switzerland enjoying what they stole from you.

      sandy.langenstrass - 2012-05-12 15:14

      @Whitenut....you are set in your ways...you seem one of the older ones from the old school of thought...you went through the apartheid error and believe anything white, represents that era...times have changed...the white man in this land doesn't want that time over again...we all need to get rid of old ideas and tune into...the now times.

  • Serame - 2012-05-11 22:31

    Mr Mbeki..I admire your observations and insight..You are a true academic..so is your elder brother whom i still precieve with the highest regard..like everyone of us..he's human and did some mistakes...but i still admire his leadership acumen..To sum up everything you've said...ITS CALLED ZUMALICIOUS...he's looting the country for all it has..

      phonis9 - 2012-05-12 12:25

      @ Serame i like your comment.

  • themba.riba - 2012-05-11 22:31

    mr or miss editor why did u cut my comment short?

  • Hudayfah - 2012-05-11 22:54

    Come on Mazibuko and Hellen,do your magic.S.A is there for the taking. On second thoughts . . .no, dont rule S.A, concentrate only on W.C you're doing a fantastic job.

  • Christognus - 2012-05-11 23:03

    in your dream ANC will rule till the end of you and your clan SOORRY

  • billidp - 2012-05-11 23:04

    I have always loved Moeletsi Mbeki; he talks sense, speks his mind and doesn't care who likes what he is saying or not! Once again he has hit the nail on the head!

      Sterling - 2012-05-12 09:34

      You are right however, try to get all of these families off family grants and see what the outcome will be. Seventy percent of the people voted for the ANC don't work.

  • Mmalodi - 2012-05-12 00:20

    Thabo Mbeki's administration wasn't perfect but what I'm seeing with the Zuma administration today, I haven't even found words to describe. As a young South African I know I deserve better even if better means for me to vote for a rival party. I can't keep drinking poison in the hope that it will change

      Jean - 2012-05-12 02:33

      Under Mbeki the problems started, now Zuma has taken his place and he just doesn't know how to fix the problems, it comes down to that the anc of today is more incompetent!

  • ramohapelwa.berries - 2012-05-12 00:30

    Moeletsi 'ADVISOR' Mbeki, brother of Mr. Thabo, ex President of Republic of SA 4 2 terms. During his term, ANC achieved 2 thirds majority, won all 9 provinces.

      eddie.sibiya - 2012-05-12 03:55

      @ Ramohapelwa, Since 1994 the ANC never won all nine provinces, it gained control of Western Cape through coalition with other parties. The truth will liberate us

  • Xulu.Thulany.Xaba - 2012-05-12 00:59

    Ok

  • Xulu.Thulany.Xaba - 2012-05-12 01:15

    Therefore jesus is coming in 20 to 30 years time. Looking forward. oh Mr Mbeki \thinking\ is not always knowing.

      Jean - 2012-05-12 02:30

      Oooooooo, sorry was that a bitter pill to swallow?!

  • mlatha.sigidi - 2012-05-12 01:48

    The Anc will be in for more than five decades to come

  • KCorsar - 2012-05-12 01:53

    Read reports stemming from the Auditor General's department the fiscal health of South Africa is at breaking point or insolvent already - is that the sign of strong leadership or the fabric being held together by the seams. I fear the latter, the seams being the impoverished masses, who are poorly informed and often 'abused' as an electorate. This is due to a legacy of ANC support no matter what. In truth a populist party is missing in the landscape; the ANC cannot lay claim to that mantle, as their leadership has shaped improvement in some areas; destroyed or degraded in others; created an imbalance in the 'spread' of wealth (BEE, AA and other reforms) that has actually only reached a few - look into the ownership of JSE through BEE empowerment consortiums and see how few are actually gaining from economic growth - VERY FEW. Many South Africans are improving their own lives through hard work and skills gained through improved education - this is where the ANC downfall will come from, not the impoverished masses, but the meat in the sandwich. Moeletsi Mbeki has one thing right an 'Spring' will come, what remains is when and lead by whom (that person is one who isn't on the current political landscape) and it will shock the ruling party. A coalition government is closer than we all think.

  • tbnjoms - 2012-05-12 02:05

    Power 2 dis. We South Africans r lucky 2 hv some1 lyk u who wakes us up. ANC we love u plz change da way u r doing things. Lift up poor people. Amandla!

  • rebaone.keameditse - 2012-05-12 03:07

    We are revolving around the same circle in this country. The ANC has no problem but power hungry people, who use the ANC as device to milk money and fortune from the Government. Who will challenge the ANC? Those previously caused damage and benefited. They will come in power doing the same or maintaining their business in the name of '' correcting ANC previous mistake for More than 2Oyrs. Let us honestly look at the strong opposition parties do they really represent the interest of the general?

      Nigel - 2012-05-12 11:58

      when blacks form an honest strong opposition with good strong leaders than can run this country, we will be on the right path, if you guys let the ANC carry on with this nonsense, we will all suffer, the important thing is will the new opposition, if & when it is formed, not do the same thing as the ANC is doing, don't give any party too much power & hold them accountable for doing their jobs & delivering, they are not god & we do not work fro them, they work for us, I don't care who runs this country, as long as they respect the constitution & do a good job. Its really up to you guys (blacks), we need good black leaders. We are still facing a serious economic recession & times are going to get tougher, we need to wake up fast, we will need all the help we can get, we will need to work together to save our buts.

  • John - 2012-05-12 04:56

    He didn't mention his brother was an idiot !!!!

  • ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 05:02

    "Power corrupts" and "absolute power corrupts absolutely", so the ratio of power between the ANC & DA is 8:1 (province wise), so if power and corruption are directly proportional then it should not be so suprising that the ANC is more corrupt than the DA.

      Nigel - 2012-05-12 12:02

      The day that the ANC starts doing its job, is when the ratio is 50:50, they have absolute power & are power drunk, they have lost the way & what is needed it as serious wake-up call, the DA is not the enemy, they might very well be the solution to force the ANC to get over its power drunk arrogance & wake up & start doing the job they were voted in to do.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 12:24

      Nigel...you are right, the DA is the necessary force needed to take out the ANC but its also the only force I dont trust with the future of south africa...Im keen on giving the ANC a wake up call but not by giving DA power.

      Dee - 2012-05-12 13:33

      Ivan - until there is a party that does not represent historical "Race" nor "Struggle"emotions, perhaps a compromise for you could be for ANC to hold power and national level and DA to manage practicalities at municipal level? I deeply respect / acknowledge the pain you carry from apartheid - but a well functioning democarcy needs a solid opposition party. DA is NOT very strong with ??16% of votes - and my greatest fear is the slippery slope to one of those 'One Party States'......... millions of whose citizens we now have here in SA.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 13:46

      @Dee thats the greatest idea I have seen up till now, several people and I would appreciate that. Afterall, the cause for corruption is because the ANC have too much power so it would be great but we both know thats a dream Zile is arrogant...the ANC is arrogant. So theres got to be a checkmate one way or another. I think we have had enough suffering as a country and I would do almost anything to help end this, but I dont believe going all out for DA will bring that change.

      Dee - 2012-05-12 16:31

      I think your sheer decency and thoughfulness does do alot to help heal 'the suffering' of this country. Thank you for that.

  • George - 2012-05-12 05:19

    The sooner we ger rid of cANCer the healthier we will be.

      ivan.matshaba1 - 2012-05-12 13:55

      you are the cancer we should get rid off, think twice before throwing stones at a party where some of its people are actually "good" believe it or not. If people who utter your kind of malignant nonsense where leading the apartheid era...it would have ended in a massacre. Thank God stupidity doesnt get promoted to that extend.

  • Monyamathe - 2012-05-12 05:41

    SA needs a new codesa really, the prophets and elders must lead it, to address the fears, threats they see, what do say guys.

      Themba - 2012-05-12 11:58

      Another CODESA will be like fiddling while SA burns. The ANC must be kicked out. We gave them 18 years and they have failed and failed dismally.

      Dee - 2012-05-12 13:40

      I rather entertain the thought of an AMNESTY on e.g. Arms Deal & other 'stealing of the pot of gold' of our rainbow nation. The way things stand - the only way some 'leaders' can avoid prosecution is to build and retain absolute personal power. And that is why we have Mduli type sagas, serious threat of Secrecy Bill and other attacks on independent judiciary and constitution.

  • Mathapelo - 2012-05-12 06:53

    Moeletsi always speaks the thruth. Indeed ANC's kingdom will not last 4ever. Ruling Until Jesus comes back will remain a dream