South Africa - what's next?
2008-09-22 10:36
Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki told the country on Sunday night he was stepping down after his ruling African National Congress demanded he
leave office over allegations he abused power in the corruption
case against new party leader Jacob Zuma.
Mbeki told the nation in a live televised broadcast he had
tendered his resignation which would become effective from a
date to be determined by Parliament, which is meeting on Monday.
Here are some questions and answers related to South
Africa's biggest political crisis since the country's first
multi-race elections in 1994.
Will the government collapse?
A number of pro-Mbeki cabinet ministers have threatened to
resign in solidarity with their deposed leader. An exodus could
paralyse or bring the government down, forcing the ANC-dominated
Parliament to dissolve and call early elections.
Zuma and ANC officials are working behind the scenes to keep
the Cabinet intact during a transitional government. Finance
Minister Trevor Manuel has indicated he is not resigning.
ANC Treasurer-General Mathews Phosa said in a televised
debate the party will announce the acting state president on
Monday, adding the party wanted the current cabinet to remain.
Who will lead a transitional government?
Zuma, who is the frontrunner to win the presidential
election next year, holds no position in the government and is
unlikely to assume the presidency during a transitional period
set to last about six months until elections due in April 2009.
Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka should, after
Mbeki's resignation, assume the presidency. She is not liked
by Zuma's camp and has already indicated she will follow Mbeki.
A Cabinet minister, possibly Manuel or ANC Deputy President
Kgalema Motlanthe, could fill the breach. Zuma supporters,
appear to favour Baleka Mbete, the Speaker of Parliament.
How unstable will South Africa become?
Mbeki's removal is the gravest crisis to confront the ANC
since it came to power in 1994 after the end of white minority
rule. It coincides with a slowdown in the economy, which is
struggling to contain inflation and an electricity crisis.
There is speculation pro-Mbeki loyalists may quit the ANC
and form a breakaway party. Such a move could clip the
conservative, pro-business wing of the ANC, effectively making
it a captive of powerful trade unions and the small, but
influential, communist party.
Investors are wary of a Zuma-led government despite his
reassurances there will be no major policy changes. He seen by
some as an untested leader and his strong backing from the left
has caused jitters.
South Africa's currency, the rand, could weaken if the
transition goes badly.
How is Africa, rest of the world affected?
Foreign policy will take a backseat to domestic issues in a
Zuma-controlled government. The ANC has vowed to intensify its
battle against poverty and high unemployment, having grumbled
about how much time Mbeki spent on the world stage.
South Africa's influence overseas could be dented by the
loss of Mbeki, who has successfully mediated an end to a number
of African conflicts and acted as a broker between rich
industrialised nations and the developing world.
The departure casts a cloud over Zimbabwe, where Mbeki's
mediation led to a power-sharing deal between President Robert
Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. It is unclear
who would mediate if the deal, now at an impasse, falls apart.
Zuma has been tougher on Mugabe's government, but he may not
have the time to intervene if the crisis flares up.
What happens next?
The ANC's parliamentary caucus is expected to meet on Monday
to draw up the strategy for formally removing Mbeki and decide
on a new acting president.
Mbeki's willingness to step aside without a fight makes it
unlikely that Parliament, where the ANC holds a two-thirds
majority, will resort to impeaching him or putting forth a
non-confidence vote in him or his government.
Once Mbeki resigns, Parliament will have 30 days to appoint
a successor.