News24

Sympathetic SA may help Gaddafi - analysts

2011-03-08 23:10

Nairobi - For a man who has courted and sought to unite African nations for years, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi may find himself short of welcoming hosts on the continent if he is forced to flee fast.

Now fighting a revolution at home, Gaddafi has been a driving force behind the African Union, his largesse has extended Libya's economic reach throughout sub-Saharan Africa and he still has some close friends in power.

But analysts say many African leaders have become frustrated with Gaddafi's erratic behaviour, some still harbour grudges over past meddling in internal conflicts and others may not want to tarnish their images further by giving him a home.

Some analysts said South Africa, home to ousted leaders from Madagascar and Haiti, could play a key role in finding a home for Gaddafi - even though the recent violence unleashed in Libya now makes it unlikely they could be hosts this time.

The two countries have certainly had close ties in the past. When he was released from prison, Nelson Mandela visited Libya to thank Gaddafi for his support in the fight against apartheid.

While Gaddafi's relations with former president Thabo Mbeki were sometimes testy - notably over the Libyan leader's vision for a United States of Africa - ties have improved under President Jacob Zuma.

"South Africa would be sympathetic: there's the whole history, the rhetoric, the money to the ANC (African National Congress), and Zuma's met him on several occasions," said the Africa specialist.

Objectives

While Gaddafi supported a number of African independence movements, his backing of rebels who tore apart Sierra Leone and Liberia, and the treatment of Africans in Libya, has left some cynical about his objectives in sub-Saharan Africa.

Neighbours such as Chad and Niger may be wary about hosting Gaddafi in case his presence becomes a destabilising influence, and for fear of risking relationships with France.

Gaddafi would also have to weigh carefully whether some potential but ageing hosts would be able to shield him for long from any future prosecution at The Hague.

"I am not altogether sure that Gaddafi has any options in Africa which would be both viable at the moment and sustainable even in the intermediate term, much less the long term," said J Peter Pham, Africa security analyst at the National Committee on American foreign policy.

The two countries cited by analysts as most likely to offer Gaddafi a bolthole are Eritrea and Zimbabwe - but if he were to leave Libya as a part of negotiated deal to solve an African problem and avert more bloodshed, the list could well expand.

Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki has few friends outside his Horn of Africa nation, but Gaddafi is one of them. Isaias has visited Gaddafi regularly and Libya was the only Security Council member to vote against UN sanctions on Eritrea in 2009.

Isaias described his country's relations with Libya as "special and historical" during a visit by Libyan media to Asmara last year and said the two countries shared similar views on regional and international issues.

Zimbabwe

"Eritrea has close relations with Gaddafi and Isaias does not seem concerned about the views of his African colleagues," said David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Eritrea's neighbour Ethiopia.

As long as Isaias remains in power, Gaddafi should be safe from any international prosecution.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe is also a long-standing ally of Gaddafi and has provided a safe haven for former Ethiopian dictator  Mengistu Haile Mariam for 20 years.

Mengistu's rule was brutal. Hundreds of thousands of opponents were slaughtered in his "Red Terror" purges before rebels led by now Prime Minister Meles Zenawi drove him into exile, where he has been shielded by Mugabe ever since.

"He hasn't turned over Mengistu in 20 years, so he has impeccable credentials for housing tyrants," said one Africa specialist.

But with the exception of those two countries, analysts say Gaddafi's options in Africa are limited, and Mugabe might prefer to host Gaddafi under a negotiated deal to score some points on the continent for helping solve an African problem.

If African nations can come up with a solution, then some analysts say countries such as Equatorial Guinea or even the Comoros Islands could also end up hosting the man who styled himself Africa's "King of Kings" - as island prisons.

Comments
  • k1dbl4ck - 2011-03-08 23:26

    gadaffi is a clown. he and mugabe's mannerisms are near identical. they both suffer the same affliction - whether by the hands of the Illuminati, or something less significant, like the abuse of pure colombian cocaine.

      luke.snoobab - 2011-03-09 07:35

      the ANC are trying to head hunt for positions in parliment

      BigMoose - 2011-03-09 08:09

      Gaddafi for President!

      Assegaai - 2011-03-09 10:49

      @tshepotheterminator open your eyes this country is already full of wannabe dictators you muppet.

  • Kaliel - 2011-03-08 23:35

    1 dictator 1 bullet. end of story.

  • Andy49 - 2011-03-08 23:37

    YES we must give this clown asylum, also the obligatory free mansion in Sandton amongst his fellow thieving dictator comrades + chauffeur driven Maybach 62. In return Libya provides FREE oil to South Africa for life. A bit of relief for the burdened motoring taxpayers

      Charles Small - 2011-03-09 07:58

      @Andy49. Two things. One Free oil won't bring the fuel price down, it will only fill the Fat Cats' pockets even more. The Second thing. Gaddafi doesn't want a mansion, give him a place with a big enough back yard for his tent and he'll be over the moon...

  • jbooyse - 2011-03-09 05:38

    Give him a farm in Zim... I am sure him and Bob would make excellent neighbours.

  • Met - 2011-03-09 05:39

    All the clowns are finding a natural home in Southern Africa- the ones of the anc, zanu-pf and now gaddaffi( sounds like a cartoon character as well)

  • Stuart - 2011-03-09 05:41

    Once again we run with a loser!! Viva!!!!

  • ludlowdj - 2011-03-09 06:40

    Not surprising, just one bunch of terrorists and dictators looking after another. South Africa land of the RACIST and home of the CORRUPT

  • Picasso - 2011-03-09 06:44

    Birds of a feather...

  • JuluisMalema - 2011-03-09 06:46

    Typical of our Goverment, will help dictator who is busy killing their nation out shooting with canons and jets. Our goverment is in with Robert Mugabe also and Gadafi falls in the same legue will do what ever to stay in charge of Libya same with mad Bob Mugabe he also did riots to stay. And our stupid Goverment will help them always instead of seeing the truth, and helping the nation they are the ones suffering here.

      JuluisMalema - 2011-03-09 08:08

      There is a Civil War going on there started by the dictator Gadafi himself, He has been the leader of Libya since 1969 for 42 years he has rinced the nation from behind. It is time to fire him and not out of office with a M107 Barrert sniper rifle or maybe a Laser Sighted RPG, put him out of office with that. I worked in Libya for 9 months in Al Koms close to Misrata where I was one day, I see on the news at the one place we were in Misrata baby's are victims along with parents now. Gadafi even sends troops to Hospitals to kill people that were injured in protest. For to long Gadafi brainwashed the whole Libyan nation with his Gaddafi's political philosophy publication known as "Green Book" i have one of these, I can tell you Libyan people are not very educated to let this loonatic run for 42 years, it is about time they stand up for their rights. Gadafi even wanted to be the Leader of Africa and call it the United States of Africa and him as the sole Leader. Muammar Gadafi is a Maniac on the loose fire him.

  • JBP - 2011-03-09 06:57

    Build oin the past and F#**#up the future ANC.

      theoldmanofthemountains - 2011-03-09 09:10

      Get a life - the article wasn't about the ANC (even though they were mentioned - they weren't the focus).

  • Wes - 2011-03-09 07:08

    Dictatorial Adviser to two wannabees We don't want you here we have enough

  • 5cents - 2011-03-09 07:19

    What really scares me is that these dictators and high ranking ANC official like Winnie is on the road with me!! Fear the day one of them drives into me or gets upset about something. Not a nice feeling

  • Chibuli - 2011-03-09 07:31

    The international community should rise against all dictators and their supporters. Dictatorship should be labelled "International Treason" and considered a crime against humanity - punishable by (natural) life imprisonment with hard labour - and no possibility of parole. I'd love to watch our African dictators realising their potential as garden boys.

  • Brandon96end - 2011-03-09 07:34

    Sure why not. Aristide spent years here on tax payer funding why not ****head Gadz? We could open the Despot-Inn and house all Africa's assholes in Sandton.

  • Sword&Cross - 2011-03-09 07:36

    Yes, South Africa MUST continue with it's TREND of inviting ever parasitic dictator to sponge off our tax payers hard earned money but who never received anything from them. (Only a few elitist leadership used these dictators to get a step up when expedient). When does that Haitian parasite leave back for it's island of bliss?

      Ross - 2011-03-09 07:59

      And the one with the long surname from Madagascar.

      Mike - 2011-03-09 13:25

      Don't forget that the Libyan government (read Gaddafi) owns hotels as well as game farms in SA. He'll be coming home!

  • shmangle - 2011-03-09 07:38

    Well of course Jacob Zuma is chummy with him, he gave money to the ANC. Probably gave JZ some pocket money last visit. A friend in greed is a friend indeed.

  • ICEAGE - 2011-03-09 07:40

    Los die bliksem waar hy is. Hy het die gemors begin! Face the music boet!!

  • Stephen - 2011-03-09 07:42

    Now whi am i not surprised we seem to attract the Lunatics of the world, and we as the SA taxpayer "We few" have to pay the bill for giant Bedouin tents and goats milk, UnFrikken believable

  • Sharon - 2011-03-09 07:45

    WE DON'T WANT GADDAFI IN SOUTH AFRICA. He is welcome to go to the Hague and face the disgusting, horredous crimes he has committed against the people of Libya.

  • Legend77 - 2011-03-09 07:48

    I can't understand you people. Our goverment have not pledged support to him. Please read the article you idiots. This is the opinion of an analyst.

      Felix - 2011-03-09 08:06

      Our goverment hasn't condemned Gaddafi, analysts are generally good at guessing. Let the people shout, hopefully if we all shout loud enough JZ will hear us in France...

  • Sisie - 2011-03-09 07:56

    He will live in the Michaelangelo (which he owns) & then charge SA government for the pleasure of his presence - the stupid f***wit. Oh and the SA government will fall for it - because they are really no better than he is. Idiots! Maybe as he flying somewhere over Africa, some brave soul will blow him out of the sky. Save the taxpayer a lot of money.

  • Psychotron - 2011-03-09 07:56

    Typical of a terrorist organisation trying to invite a murdering dictator. Shows you what the ANC is made of.

      Will2.0 - 2011-03-09 14:56

      Did you even read the article?

  • bollie - 2011-03-09 08:00

    we don't want him here. period.....

  • Rich - 2011-03-09 08:08

    If Gaddafi is harboured/sheltered in SA then the people of SA must withold paying Rates ans Taxes until he F...ks Off.

  • Perfume - 2011-03-09 08:12

    I am not sympathetic towards this shit, dont include me and say "sympathetic SA may help Gadaffi"..I did not agree to helping *clicks tongue*

  • Jesus Christ - 2011-03-09 08:19

    The only true way to cripple the ANC's racial hatred is for whites, coloureds and Indians to begin an IMMEDIATE TAX REVOLT. Every tax-payer in this country form the above groups is directly contributing to their own demise by empowering despots and black nationalist dictators on the rise. People its time to starve off this deadly parasite, which is bleeding your life blood, stealing your future and your children's legacy. They have done NOTHING to deserve your hard earned money. The roads are breaking apart, the police are corrupt, the education system has collapsed, the food growers are being murdered, the healthcare system is destroyed. ASK YOURSELF, WHY YOU STILL SUBMITTING A TAX RETURN TODAY! ANC - The bucks stop here! Today!

      ronbonjon - 2011-03-09 09:21

      What you say is true - but please, why do you call yourself Jesus Christ?

      JuluisMalema - 2011-03-09 09:24

      Shame on you for using a name like that. It is not right I pray for people like you. Hope you see the light in life. Good luck.

      theoldmanofthemountains - 2011-03-09 09:33

      JC, to quote what the real Jesus said (Mark 12:17): "Give to Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's." Let me spell that you for you in simple terms: pay your taxes - otherwise SARS will lock you up! Not even the real Jesus Christ was as seditious as you.

      Mike - 2011-03-09 12:01

      @ronbonjon - because he can! - if jesus called himself that why not some body else - what's in a name - it's his opinion that counts!

      ronbonjon - 2011-03-09 14:59

      Oh shut up mike - r u his mouthpiece or what?

  • Shisstirrer QBE - 2011-03-09 08:26

    But he is not black , where will the anc house him ? WC ?

  • v3 - 2011-03-09 08:39

    Gaddafi gave millions to the ANC. Now it's payback time. Besides, "there isn't an anti-Western despot the ANC doesn't like."

      mosali - 2011-03-09 09:31

      THE ANC DO NOT BELIEVE IN PAY BACK - LOOK AT WHAT THEY DID IN LESOTHO, TANZANIANS NEED VISAS TO VISIT, THERE ARE TOO MANY COLOUREDS IN WP AND TOO MANY INDIANS IN KZN, ETC!

  • Mike - 2011-03-09 08:57

    It can only be Africa that would want to habour a dictator. Its the only leadership it knows.

  • Goose - 2011-03-09 09:05

    Oh gosh. Seriously, SA cannot and MUST NOT host yet another dictator and mass murderer! Nelson Mandela started SA on this trip of cosying up to the filth of the world and his replacements have just continued the trend! Even with his track record, I still cannot believe the world worships Nelson Mandela. We live in a sick world!

  • Debonaire - 2011-03-09 09:07

    He would be better dead and buried

  • Lebzaton - 2011-03-09 09:10

    NO dictators in SA please. bl**dy murderer

  • lee.larryblue - 2011-03-09 09:13

    And why would we house a murderer like Gaddafi????.....Oooopsie I forgot, we housed Jean Harrastit.....And I wouldnt be suprised if Mugabe also hibbernates here....

  • mosali - 2011-03-09 09:15

    @TSHEPO - WOW MAN FOR ONC YOU ARE NOT ON THE SIDE OF THE ANC - WHATS THE MARRER BRO? WHO CROSSED YOU?

  • ronbonjon - 2011-03-09 09:20

    How embarassing - if SA government provide refuge for this mental monster, i would be embarrassed to admit im a SA woman - shit

  • Souf-Efrikan - 2011-03-09 10:53

    I wonder if that is the reason for the VIP mansion refit... persian carpets, golden cutlery, cut crystal glasses... maybe preparation for Gaddafi's arrival. Wonder if he would like Benzes or BMs to ferry him around in blue light fashion...? The mind boggles...

      ronbonjon - 2011-03-09 11:36

      you got it right

  • Mike - 2011-03-09 11:56

    The Libian government (read Gadaffit) owns many properties in SA including game farms - a huge hotel in Jo'burg and one in Cape Town - and of course the bent Zoo-se-ma will gladly open the door to this despot. With all the mod-cons thrown in for mahala!

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