Habib: It's a political crisis

2008-09-23 19:05

Cape Town - The mass resignation of Cabinet ministers is a political crisis, but not a constitutional one, analyst Prof. Adam Habib said on Tuesday.

"The Constitution allows for this. It's perfectly within the framework of robust politics," he said.

One might not like what had happened, and it might have an impact on South Africa's standing in international markets "but it's by no means the end of the world or a constitutional crisis".

Habib said he was "a bit surprised" by news of the resignations.

He had originally thought there were going to be a significant number of departures from Cabinet, but after the weekend meeting of the African National Congress' National Executive Committee, he had gained the impression it was going to be a much more managed process.

"Suddenly to hear that 14 ministers and deputy ministers have resigned does suggest that something dramatic is happening," he said. "It's clearly a political crisis.

"The big question is, what has happened over the last 24 hours, or 48 hours, for them to change their minds as dramatically as they did?"

Prof Hennie Kotze, of Stellenbosch University's Centre for International and Comparative Politics, said he believed the resignations would impact "quite significantly" on investor confidence.

Stability and predictability were important for a young democracy such as South Africa, and Mbeki, with such an experienced finance minister, had followed a predictable line.

South Africa now faced the prospect of a new president with no experience in the position, and a Cabinet with very little experience.

"We will have a new team that will have to prove themselves in very difficult circumstances," he said.

"We've lost the predictability that overseas markets are looking for."

The looming general election would also put the Zuma administration under pressure of demands from its allies on the left.

However, there was no need to panic, as the next layer of expertise - the directors-general and their deputies - was still there.

He doubted the Zuma camp would go flat out to effect changes there yet.

"That would be the sensible thing, to keep the civil servants and the leadership in semi-state institutions in their positions at this stage, and not effect broad-ranging changes," he said.

- SAPA