Hurricanes 'a passing phase'
2005-09-21 20:00
Washington - The cycle of hurricanes blowing across the Atlantic Ocean probably will continue for another 10 to 20 years as a result of natural weather patterns, not global warming, the head of the National Hurricane Centre told the United States congress on Tuesday.
Max Mayfield, director of the NHC in Miami, said at a congressional hearing: "We believe this heightened period of hurricane activity will continue... as tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is cyclical."
He said another three to six tropical storms, which could turn into hurricanes, were expected to strike before the end of 2005, making a total of 18 to 21 for the year.
He dismissed the possibility that global warming could be playing a major role in the growing number of tropical storms.
Storm cycles
"The increased activity since 1995 is due to natural cycles of hurricane activity driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself, along with the atmosphere above it and not enhanced substantially by global warming," said Mayfield.
Responding to a question by a member of the senate committee on commerce, science and transportation, Mayfield said certain studies suggested "there will be a 5% increase about the year 2080 if there's a doubling in carbon dioxide (emissions)".
Explaining the theory of storm cycles, he said a large number of strong hurricanes took place from the 1940s to the 1960s before declining in the 1970s to the mid-1990s.
Last week, a study published in the magazine, Science, set out a hypothesis that a link could exist between a surge in storm activity and elevated temperatures on the ocean surface.