Abe's return in Japan heartens US
2012-12-18 12:04
Washington - The return of conservative Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe in Japan has raised hopes in Washington for closer security ties,
although US officials hope he keeps a lid on his more strident views.
Abe is a champion of revising the post-World War II pacifist
constitution and may take shorter-term steps such as boosting defence spending
and allowing greater military co-operation with the United States, Japan's
treaty-bound ally.
His Liberal Democratic Party, which ruled almost
continuously from 1955 until 2009, roared back on Sunday with a crushing
victory over the Democratic Party of Japan, which Abe accused of harming
relations with the United States.
President Barack Obama's relations with DPJ-led Japanese
governments have substantially improved after early friction. But Abe is seen
as more supportive of US force deployments and has vowed no compromise with
China in a worsening row over disputed islands.
Michael Green, the senior vice president for Asia at the
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said that Abe's victory was a
"net positive" for the United States and could in fact stabilise
Japan-China ties.
"The view in Beijing is that their pressure tactics are
working on Japan and I think it's important to disabuse them of that,"
Green said.
But Green, who served as the top Asia adviser to former
president George W Bush, feared that a new team in the second Obama
administration could follow a "simplistic media picture" of a more
hawkish Japan and potentially isolate Abe.
Wartime sex slaves
"If the administration decides it has to somehow
counter Japan's shift to the right by brokering between Japan and China, it
would not go well either in relations with Japan or China," he said.
But Green said that US priorities in Asia - particularly the
relationship between allies Japan and South Korea - could face setbacks if Abe
pursues a hard line over emotive history issues.
Abe, whose grandfather was arrested but not indicted as a
World War II war criminal, has called in the past for rescinding Japan's
apology to wartime sex slaves, known euphemistically as "comfort women".
But Abe, during his previous 2006-2007 premiership, worked
to repair ties with China and South Korea and avoided politically charged
visits to the Yasukuni shrine, which honours 2.5 million Japanese war dead
including war criminals.
"There is a concern for US policymakers that his
revisionist inclinations will spark new tensions in the region, but his
statements of late have at least tried to temper those anxieties," said
Weston Konishi, director of Asia-Pacific studies at the Institute for Foreign
Policy Analysis.
"I think the hope is that he'll take a very responsible
approach," he said.
Abe will likely face domestic pressure not to antagonise neighbours.
Japanese business leaders have been alarmed by tensions and Abe governs in a
coalition with New Komeito, a Buddhist party with pacifist views.
Konishi said there were "probably some circles in town
that welcome" the return of familiar faces in the Liberal Democratic
Party, but added that the Obama administration had developed a strong
relationship with the Democrats.
Offensive capabilities
Obama congratulated Abe and called the US-Japan alliance
"the cornerstone of peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific." State Department
spokesperson Victoria Nuland said Washington has "worked with Japanese
governments of both parties for decades" and looked forward to working
with Abe.
James Schoff, a former Pentagon official who is a senior
associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Abe's
effort on defence could be "a net benefit for everyone" if Japan
complements the United States.
"But if the focus is more toward building up offensive
capabilities vis-a-vis China, that's going to create probably more problems
than it's worth from a US perspective," he said.
Yukio Hatoyama, the first prime minister following the DPJ's
landmark 2009 win, resigned after clashing with the United States over the
status of a controversial military base in Okinawa.
Relations improved after the round-the-clock US response to
last year's tsunami and the Obama administration enjoyed strong ties with
outgoing prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, who supported joining talks on a
US-backed trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The Liberal Democrats have been divided on the emerging
deal. The party relies on support from farmers, many of whom adamantly oppose
foreign competition.
- SAPA
