British election: A tight race
2005-04-12 07:54
London - As Britain's national election campaign hit high gear Monday, Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour Party was running almost neck-and-neck with the opposition Conservatives.
So why are so few people betting the Tories have much of a chance of winning?
Quirks in Britain's electoral system mean that the Conservatives could capture more votes than Labour or any other party and still lose the election.
Polls this week showed the race anywhere between a dead heat and a seven point advantage for Labour.
But "nobody is imagining that the Conservatives can win, and it is entirely down to the bias in the electoral system," said John Curtice, a political analyst at Stratchlyde University.
Get seats = get into government
A campaign ad was broadcast on Monday showing Blair and his Treasury head Gordon Brown setting out their vision for a third term in office. The short film, crafted with the help of Oscar-winning director Anthony Minghella, shows the pair sitting closely together in a dimly-lit House of Commons office, brainstorming ideas and chatting like old college friends.
Britain's parliament does not have proportional representation - a system in which seats are distributed based on the overall vote breakdown nationwide.
Instead, each of Britain's 646 electoral districts sends one lawmaker to the House of Commons. Whoever wins the most votes in each district gets the seat, and the party that gains the most Commons seats forms the government.
It sounds simple, but it makes for a complicated political equation - one that experts agree is currently skewed against the Tories.
Analysts predict that even if both parties win an equal share of the vote, Labour would still have a Commons majority of 50 seats.
To win outright, Conservative leader Michael Howard would need a massive 10 or 11 point lead, analysts say.
A poll released on Monday, done by the NOP firm for The Independent newspaper, showed Labour ahead by six percentage points, with 38% support compared to 32% for the Tories. Pollsters interviewed 956 people with a margin of error of three percentage points.
A look at Britain's political map shows several factors working for Labour.
A large portion of Conservative supporters are in rural districts where Labour voters are scarce. In these areas the Tories win by a heavy margin, thus "wasting" votes.
Labour's support is strong in urban areas which are carved into many smaller electoral districts, where fewer votes can mean a seat.
Despite the statistical disadvantage, the Conservatives remained upbeat.
- AP