Buzz behind the pope's back
2005-02-28 10:47
Vatican City - The deteriorating health of Pope John Paul II has triggered a quiet succession scramble that the pontiff's inner circle would like to keep well out of the public eye.
The unseemly backroom manoeuvring is specifically forbidden, under threat of excommunication, in the pope's 1996 apostolic constitution, which orders the cardinals who will elect his successor to "abstain from any form of pact, agreement, promise or other commitment of any kind which could oblige them to give or deny their vote."
No one can actively campaign to succeed the pope, since the cardinals are meant to determine God's choice of representative, and doctrine holds that they are guided by the Holy Spirit when they meet in the Sistine Chapel for the momentous vote.
But such rules do little to quiet the buzz over potential candidates for the papacy - known as "papabili".
Chicago Archbishop Francis George went so far as to say that it would be "irresponsible" not to think about a successor to John Paul II.
"As his health weakens, naturally it would be irresponsible not to think about that, at least in your own heart and in your own prayers," he said.
"After John Paul II, the tendency will be to elect an Italian, given centuries of tradition, and that this nationality doesn't upset anyone, which wouldn't be the case with an American, a German or a Frenchman," one Vatican insider said, on condition of anonymity.
John Paul II, a Pole, was the first non-Italian to be elected in four and a half centuries.
"I don't think the college of electors will risk electing a foreigner. The Italians are the inner circle. They really know how the Curia works," said another source.
Of the 119 electors, 58 are European, of whom 20 are Italian.
Most Vatican watchers agree that the frontrunner is Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, archbishop of Milan.
The 70-year-old is both a pastor and an intellectual and as someone close to John Paul II he represents continuity, but with new ideas," one insider said.
The man wielding the most power at the moment is Vatican number two Secretary of State Cardinal Angelo Sodano, 77.
However, Sodano's chances to succeed the pope are thought to have been compromised by his very closeness to the pontiff.
Tettamanzi can count on the support of two powerful Italians in the college of electors, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, who heads the bishops congregation, and Camillo Ruini, head of the Italian Church.
The other Italian "papabile" is Venice patriarch Angelo Scola, 63, who like Tettamanzi is considered a moderate.
Scola will have the backing of Opus Dei, a powerful group that was elevated to the status of a personal prelature of the Catholic Church by John Paul II.
The group has a cardinal elector, Spaniard Julian Herranz, and is thought to have several Latin American and European supporters among the electors.