Chavez protégés hold key to future
2013-01-14 11:03
Caracas - A month after President Hugo Chavez left Venezuela for a fourth
cancer operation, his commanding control over the government is slowly moving
into the hands of an unlikely trio of protégés who may shape the future of the
oil-rich nation.
Chavez's cancer has left him in serious condition in a Cuban hospital and
created a leadership vacuum after 14 years of cult-of-personality socialism
that has made him a dominant figure in Latin America.
Given a micro-managing style that put an inordinate number of decisions in
his hands, and his unique ability to control an alliance that ranges from union
activists to military officers, that leadership is now being shared out among
his top allies.
Vice President and anointed successor Nicolas Maduro, Congress chief
Diosdado Cabello, and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez - a political heir apparent,
a soldier and an energy boss - are emerging as the architects of a transition
to post-Chavez rule.
"I do not think that within the party there will be a single heir that
can fill the president's shoes," said Heinz Dieterich, a Mexico-based
sociologist and former Chavez advisor who split with the president over how to
create a theoretical underpinning for his "21st century socialism."
Test run
The three leaders' gradual assertion of influence signals they are in a test
run of how to share responsibilities in the absence of Chavez, who was unable
to swear in for a new six-year term on 10 January after being hit by a severe
lung infection linked to his operation in early December.
The balance of power between the three - who have not always gotten along -
and their ability to work together will be crucial in determining whether
Venezuela continues on Chavez's path of radical socialism or evolves toward a
moderate Brazil-style leftist administration.
Outraged critics say Venezuela is rudderless and subordinated to the whims
of Cuba, where Chavez is receiving treatment under the shroud of state secrecy.
The troika gathered there on Sunday to meet with Cuban President Raul Castro.
"We know which commander they're taking orders from," said
opposition legislator Maria Corina Machado.
If Chavez left office, new elections would be called within 30 days, with
Maduro running as the Socialist Party candidate. But the government has provided
only minimal details of Chavez's condition, with no concrete evidence that he
is even conscious.
Authorities say there is no need for a formal medical review to determine if
he is fit to continue governing, and they appear willing to leave him in charge
of the country - perhaps in a vegetative state - for weeks or even months.
The transition is being closely watched by oil companies itching for greater
access to the world's largest crude reserves, as well as by foreign investors
who have bought Venezuela's high-yielding and widely-traded bonds.
Maduro, an ex-union activist and former bus driver turned foreign minister
and now president-in-waiting, has Chavez's blessing as the ruling Socialist
Party's future leader.
Seen as a moderate given to dialogue, he has already made initial contact
with Washington after years of frayed ties with the United States. He could
ease the country's polarization by mending fences with the opposition, but
risks the wrath of radicals if he moves too quickly.
Socialist trifecta
Cabello, a former soldier who took part in a failed 1992 coup that first
made Chavez famous, has much greater sway than Maduro among a crucial military
faction that controls several key ministries and a swath of state
governorships.
As president of Congress, he would be in line to lead a caretaker government
if Chavez were to die or step down - making him a potential king-maker. He is
seen as more intransigent than Maduro, and critics liken him to a thug. One
opposition leader this week flippantly referred to him as "Al Capone".
Dieterich has said he believes Cabello would betray Chavez in much the same
way that Soviet dictator Josef Stalin consolidated control over the Communist
Party even though revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin before dying had left
instructions that Stalin should be removed.
Chavez's allies have furiously criticised Dieterich's view and Maduro and
Cabello make repeated displays of unity, hugging uncomfortably during televised
broadcasts and shooting down rumors of rivalry, to sometimes awkward effect.
"People are worried that Diosdado and I are killing each other,"
Maduro boomed at a rally the day Chavez missed his inauguration. "We're
more united than ever. We're killing each other with love for the people and
loyalty to Chavez."
Ramirez, who also runs state oil company PDVSA, has started to exert his own
influence with adulatory declarations of support for Chavez and vows that oil
workers will be forever faithful to the president's self-styled revolution.
Loyal
He is a power broker because of his control over the petrodollars that
finance Chavez's much-loved social programs. He also heads a massive campaign
to build homes for tens of thousands of families that helped Chavez win
re-election.
"PDVSA belongs to the people and will remain in the people's
hands," he told a meeting last week of union officials and company
directors. "Being loyal to President Chavez means being loyal to what he
says and does. Now more than ever there is unity among the
revolutionaries."
Ramirez's own views are often overshadowed by his fierce dedication to
Chavez, though his years of experience negotiating with foreign oil companies
may help him build bridges with the opposition if the political environment
changes.
Though he has overseen some of the world's most acrimonious
nationalizations, he has also been able to win investment from energy giants
when it was in the government's interest.
Opposition leaders want much more information on Chavez's condition and, if
he is unable to serve as president, they say a caretaker must be named and new
elections called.
Chavez's team says he is recovering but the opposition insists Maduro,
Cabello and Ramirez are preparing for a post-Chavez era if he is unable to
return.
"It's obvious a transition is in place. The question is, how long can
it go on?" said local analyst Luis Vicente Leon.
