D-Day almost a disaster
2004-06-05 08:10
London - D-Day came within a whisker of disaster after divergent weather forecasts for the landings almost caused them to be postponed to a day when huge storms tore through the English Channel, a report said on Saturday.
Incorrect forecasts could easily have brought the whole operation to catastrophe, the last surviving meteorologists among three teams of British and American experts who advised military planners as to the weather conditions told the Daily Telegraph newspaper.
"I don't think people realise how close run it was," former Royal Navy forecaster Lawrence Hogben said.
"Not much would have to have changed for D-Day to have been a failure, and a failure caused by the weather."
A successful deployment on the Normandy coast - which eventually took place on June 6, 1944 - required both relatively calm seas for the landing craft and clear skies to allow air cover.
With factors such as moonlight and tides also needing to be taken into account, the landings were first planned for June 5.
A few days beforehand, the Royal Navy forecasters and another two-man team from Britain's Meteorological Office predicted a sudden decline in conditions, said Hogben and his Navy colleague, Geoffrey Wolfe.
However the final two-man group, from the US military, came up with entirely different results and said there would be good weather on June 5, even trying to persuade the Meteorological Office team to change their view, Hogben said.
"Then (US General Dwight) Eisenhower would have a two-to-one majority in favour, the attack would have been on June 5, as Eisenhower wanted. The weather was terrible that morning, with Force Six winds and high seas," he explained.
Fortunately the British experts stuck to their view, ruling out that disaster, but another almost followed.
The landings appeared set to be postponed to the next moon and tidal window of June 19, when all three meteorological teams predicted a sudden break in the weather for June 6 - but even then there were some doubts.
"If we'd been a little bit less certain and said 'No' again, it would have had to shift to the 19th," Hogben said.
"As it happened, on the 17th, all six of us produced a forecast for the 19th of almost perfect conditions, so they would definitely have gone ahead."
In the end the 19th saw a severe sudden storm - the worst seen so far that century - blow up in the English Channel.
"If they'd landed that day, I doubt many landing craft would even have made it to the beaches. It doesn't bear thinking about," Hogben said.