Howard expected to win
2004-10-08 09:53
Sydney - Australians go to the polls on Saturday with conservative Prime Minister John Howard favoured to win a fourth term in office despite public unease over his decision to join the US-led war in Iraq.
Domestic issues overshadowed the Iraq crisis and the threat of international terrorism during the six-week election campaign, which saw Howard focus his attack on the relative inexperience of his main rival, labour party leader Mark Latham.
End of campaign opinion polls on Friday showed Howard's Liberal-National coalition ahead of the centre-left Labour by a margin of three to four points, indicating it was on track to maintain or even expand the eight-seat majority it held in the outgoing 150-member House of Representatives.
The polling trend over the past two weeks has seen a steady erosion of Labour's early lead, despite the widespread view that the 43-year-old Latham has run a strong campaign just 10 months after taking over the opposition party.
But with Australia's complex preferential voting system, under which minor parties' votes are redistributed to other candidates if no one gets 50% of the primary ballots, an upset Labour victory cannot be ruled out.
If the conservatives win on Saturday, Howard at 65 will become Australia's second-longest serving prime minister after Robert Menzies, the Liberal party founder and Howard's political idol who led the country from 1949 to 1966.
Labour's campaign launch
Howard's controversial decision to contribute 2 000 troops to the US-led invasion of Iraq was at the centre of Labour's campaign launch six weeks ago and looked likely to dominate election debate.
Labour strongly opposed the war and accused Howard of misleading the public by claiming the invasion was needed to dismantle Saddam Hussein's stockpiled weapons of mass destruction, arms the US admitted this week did not exist.
Latham also vowed to bring home the 900 or so Australian troops remaining in and around Iraq if Labour won the election, a pledge condemned by US President George W Bush and used by Howard to back up claims the young Labour leader was anti-American and inexperienced in foreign policy.
Although opinion polls showed most Australians opposed joining the Iraq war, they did not back Labour's plan to bring the troops home and in the absence of any Australian casualties, the Iraq conflict quickly faded as a key campaign issue.
Howard succeeded in refocusing debate on his stewardship of the Australian economy through nearly nine years of solid growth and prosperity.
Voter surveys conducted by Australian media showed that while many Australians were impressed by Latham and his ideas, they felt he would be more ready to govern after the next elections in 2007.
"Even if he fails to win the election, he has already won the campaign,." said John Edwards, an economist with the HSBC banking group.