Kerry leads Bush in key states
2004-08-15 12:08
Washington - Although polls show the US presidential race a virtual dead heat, Democrat John Kerry appears to be gaining an edge over George W Bush among the key states that could decide the outcome.
An AFP review of various polls showed the Massachusetts senator leading in the hunt for the decisive 538 electoral votes that are apportioned among the states and awarded in separate winner-take-all contests.
Nationwide, the November 2 election is shaping up as every bit as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore won the popular tally but lost to the Republican Bush by five electoral votes.
Voter surveys show Bush and Kerry running even. A Pew Research Centre poll released Thursday put Kerry ahead 47-45 percent while a Gallup study on Friday had Bush on top 48-47 percent, both margins statistically insignificant.
But with the electorate highly polarised and largely decided, Kerry seemed to have an advantage among the 16 "battleground" states stretching from Oregon to Florida that are considered still up for grabs.
The states account for 177 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Polls show the Democrat leading in 10 states with 119 electoral votes, Bush ahead in one state with six, and five states with 52 electors a toss-up.
Added to the other states where no change is believed likely from 2000, the breakdown would give Kerry a 291-195 lead in electoral votes. But with 11 weeks to go before the election, the political chessboard could be easily upset.
If Bush once looked comfortable in the midwestern state of Ohio, which he won in 2000, Kerry has inched ahead in some polls. But the president is making a strong move in neighbouring Pennsylvania, where he lost four years ago.
In some states it would take tantalisingly little to overturn the previous result: 6 765 votes in Oregon, 5 708 in Wisconsin, 4 144 in Iowa, 366 in New Mexico, and the famous 537 in Florida that clinched the deal for Bush.
So both candidates have been investing most of their time and media dollars in the battlegrounds, putting their chips down and hoping they can make the math come out right.