N Korea threat 'feasible'
2008-08-27 14:20
Seoul - North Korea's threat to restart
its plant that makes arms-grade plutonium is feasible, although
the task would be a daunting one, analysts said on Wednesday.
On Tuesday the communist state said that because the United
States had not kept to its side of a disarmament-for-aid deal it
would stop disabling a Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear complex and
was considering getting back into the plutonium business.
Moscow added its voice to the western criticism on
Wednesday, with a Foreign Ministry statement expressing "concern
and disappointment" at the North Korean plans.
"The North Koreans have mastered the nuclear fuel cycle.
They understand the technical aspects of it," said Daniel
Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group in
Seoul. "They have the human resources, which is the most
important."
Engineers, working since late last year and mostly overseen
by US experts, have almost completed disabling the Yongbyon
nuclear plant. The aim is to make it impossible to resume
operations for at least a year.
"The North Koreans' thinking may be: 'We can rebuild it. We
can make it better and we have enough nuclear weapons to deter
anyone for the one to three years it might take to get this back
up and running'," Pinkston said.
The disablement work was done at three facilities - a plant
that produces nuclear fuel, the North's sole operating reactor
and a plant that turns spent fuel into plutonium.
The only major remaining step was the discharging of
irradiated fuel rods from the reactor. The rods are still in
North Korea and contain enough fissile material for one nuclear
bomb, proliferation experts said.
They said the North, which conducted its only nuclear test
two years ago, has already produced enough plutonium for about
six to eight bombs.
Exploiting a weakness
The isolated North's latest announcement confirms the belief
of some analysts that its communist leaders have no intention of
giving up nuclear weapons, a diplomatic trump card that has
repeatedly won them concessions in the past.
"North Korea is biding its time, thinking there is no rush
for denuclearisation," said Lee Sang-hyun, director of the
security studies programme at South Korea's Sejong Institute.
North Korea was angered that the United States has not
dropped it from a terrorism blacklist, something Washington said
it would do only after Pyongyang accepted inspectors to verify
details of its nuclear inventory.
Once removed from its pariah status, experts estimate the
North could see its broken economy grow with increased trade and
investment.
Bruce Klingner, an Asian affairs expert with the Heritage
Foundation, said the North may have seen the Bush administration
as eager to make a deal before leaving office.
He added that during the prolonged talks the North has also
seen Washington back down when it said it would not compromise.
"What this has meant is the US agreeing to the North
Korean demands and kicking the can down the road on any
contentious issues," Klingner said by telephone from Washington.
The sputtering talks that started about five years ago are
likely to continue because regional powers see them as the best
diplomatic method for engaging North Korea, although Pyongyang's
recent announcement slammed the brakes on progress for now.
"Just when we thought the six-party talks where dead ...
they keep coming back to life," Klingner said of the talks
between the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United
States.