North Korea sends nuclear message
2013-02-12 17:30
Vienna - North Korea's nuclear test may be aimed at
showing its foes it can deliver a missile with a warhead but it is still a long
way from being able to threaten the US, experts say.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation
(CTBTO), an international monitoring agency in Vienna, said an
"explosion-like" event that North Korea described as a nuclear test
had a seismic magnitude of 5. This was bigger than similar tests it carried out
in 2006 and 2009.
CTBTO executive secretary Tibor Toth said the action
"constitutes a clear threat to international peace and security and
challenges efforts to strengthen global nuclear disarmament and
non-proliferation".
North Korea said the test, which drew swift international
condemnation, had used a miniaturised device.
The secretive Asian state is widely believed to be trying
to develop a device that is compact and light enough to fit on top of a
ballistic missile - "something that has long been considered out of the
North's technical reach," the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (Sipri) said.
A successful test would bring it one step closer to
having the capability of building a long-range ballistic missile that could
deliver a nuclear weapon, Sipri said.
Nuclear proliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies in London said: "It won't be
possible to confirm from afar, but the claim of a successful miniaturised
device is consistent with expectations that the test would be of a warhead that
can fit in the nose cone of one of its missiles."
Jim Walsh of Massachusetts Institute of Technology said:
"It seems as if Pyongyang wants to send the message - true or not - that
it can employ a missile with a nuclear warhead and that previous problems with
their nuclear tests have been overcome."
However, North Korea still had a long way to go before it
could credibly threaten the US with nuclear weapons, said Daryl Kimball from the
Arms Control Association, a US-based research and advocacy group.
"It is likely to be years away from fielding an ICBM
(Intercontinental Ballistic Missile), which could deliver a nuclear warhead to
the US mainland. There is still time to halt and reverse current trends before
North Korea's nuclear capabilities become more substantial."
No lies on test
An international test-ban treaty was negotiated in the
1990s but has not yet taken effect because not all holders of nuclear
technology have ratified it.
The Vienna-based CBTBO monitors possible breaches,
looking out for signs of atomic tests, including seismic waves and radioactive
traces.
Experts say it can take days or more to detect possible
radioactive signs that would confirm with absolute certainty that a nuclear
test had taken place.
Seen as a cornerstone of efforts to free the world of
atomic bombs, the test ban treaty enjoys wide support around the world.
But of the five officially recognised nuclear weapon
states, the US and China have yet to ratify it.
"Though confirmation will take some time, given the
seismic signature and the important fact [North Korea] has never lied when it
comes to nuclear tests, I think we can take them at their word and assume this
was the explosion of a nuclear device," a Western diplomat in the Austrian
capital said.
Kimball also said the test was an embarrassment for
China's leadership and Pyongyang may have jeopardised the aid and diplomatic
support it receives from Beijing.
China criticised the previous tests but did not roll back
on aid. But Beijing had signalled that if North Korea undertook further tests,
it would not hesitate to reduce assistance.
"Indeed, Beijing could do much more to apply
pressure. Past Chinese diplomatic and economic support has allowed North Korea
to ignore world opinion, in spite of the desperate state of its economy and
hunger-ravaged population. It is important that Beijing now demonstrate its
last warning was sincere," Kimball said.
