Palestinian uprising not seen
2009-12-29 21:02
Jerusalem - The chances of a new Palestinian uprising erupting in 2010 are low, barring a dramatic event like an attack on Muslim holy places, the head of Israel's Shin Bet security agency was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
A change in Palestinian leadership or large-scale release of Hamas prisoners into the Israeli-occupied West Bank could also destabilise the region, Yuval Diskin told the parliamentary foreign affairs and defence committee, according to a senior official at the closed-door meeting.
"The chances of a third intifada (uprising) in 2010 are low," Diskin reportedly said.
"But if there are dramatic events like an attack on the Temple Mount (the Al-Aqsa mosque compound), arson attacks on mosques or similar things, it could inflame the situation or lead to protests."
The Al-Aqsa mosque compound known to Muslims as Al-Haram Al-Sharif (the Noble Sanctuary) and to Jews as the Temple Mount has been a frequent flashpoint.
Prisoner swop
In September 2000, the second Palestinian uprising erupted after Ariel Sharon, a rightwing politician who went on to become Israel's prime minister, visited the site.
"Looking beyond 2010, when and if (Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas) is replaced by another leader like (Marwan) Barghuti, and if many Hamas prisoners are released into the West Bank where they can rebuild the terror infrastructure ... it could encourage the region to return to terror activities," Diskin was quoted as saying.
Israel is currently engaged in negotiations with Hamas who are demanding the release of hundreds of prisoners, including the charismatic Barghuti, in return for a captive Israeli soldier.
In his security assessment Diskin said it would be difficult for Israel to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians as long as Gaza and the West Bank remain divided.
Talks not seen succeeding
Hamas, an Islamist movement pledged to the destruction of Israel, took over the Gaza Strip in June 2007 in a week of bloody battles with Abbas's secular Fatah party.
Egyptian-brokered talks at reconciling the two sides have failed and Diskin said it was unlikely they would succeed.
"I do not see a situation where the Palestinian Authority returns to Gaza with the consent of Hamas and vice-versa," he said.
Nevertheless, he said that the split was good for Israel's security.
"From a security viewpoint it would be wrong to reconnect between the strip and the West Bank. That would enable the rebuilding of the terrorist infrastructure and hurt Israel," he said.
- SAPA